203 N Paradise Dr · Overton, TX 75684

$132,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1982 0.32 ac lot Est $204k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Come check out this wonderful investment opportunity located in the heart of East Texas! This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a large wood burning fireplace. There is a spacious garage for 2 cars, as well as additional storage space. The laundry room is equipped with floor-to-ceiling built-in storage compartments/cabinets. The home's backyard is large, fenced, contains a covered patio, and a small storage shed! This property is worth the look!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Small storage shed
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• SMALL STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Home design: Single-family detached home; Single-story
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Chain link fencing; Above-ground pool; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $132k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $132k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#432 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Arp ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #400 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($916 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,512 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,450
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 N Meadowbrook Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+4%)	4mo	$114,400	$76	81
101 N Meadowbrook Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+7%)	1mo	$220,000	$141	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $22,097
• Equity at exit: $59,578

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $70,271
• Equity at exit: $91,816

Cash invested: $37,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75684

• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$695
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,891/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,254

Max offer price $132,500

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,125
• Closing costs: $3,975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
304 E Cottonwood St Overton, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,375	$1.14	21d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $132,500 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $132,500 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $132,500 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $132,500 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $132,500 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $132,500 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $132,500 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $132,500 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $132,500 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $132,500 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $132,500 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $132,500 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $132,500 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $132,500 Active
15. 2015-01-21
    soldstatus
16. 1993-03-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,422
• − Property taxes: −$2,891
• − Insurance: −$662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,320
• − Management: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$3,855
• Taxable loss: −$970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$233
• After-tax cash flow: $1,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arp ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808730
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,075
• Composite: 34.58/100
• National rank: #5165
• State rank: #400 of 826 in TX

Livability — Overton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #432
• US rank: #8906

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Overton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,655

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $132,500 GTAR
• 2015-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,891 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.