229 Forest Lane Dr · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$152,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

DON'T MISS THIS ONE!! Come see this beautiful move-in ready home for yourself! Built in 2022 and sitting on almost half an acre, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect combination of comfort, convenience, and peaceful living. With no HOA and no city restrictions, you’ll enjoy the freedom and flexibility you’ve been looking for, along with underground electricity for added appeal. The open floor plan creates a spacious feel that’s perfect for entertaining family and friends or simply relaxing at home. This property comes fully equipped with washer, dryer, refrigerator, microwave, and more — just bring your bags and start enjoying your new home from da

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Fenced yard
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• NO HOA
• NO CITY RESTRICTIONS
• UNDERGROUND ELECTRICITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Multiple parcel ID; Subdivision: Forgotten Acres Sub
• Financial info: Listing terms include Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA assumable
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Gravel parking; Additional oversized parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Municipal utility district; Property located outside city limits
• Home design: Single family residence (residential); One story; Property attached: Yes
• Construction: Built in 2022; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Storm cellar; Cleared lot with many trees; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level (including primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (ENERGY STAR qualified equipment); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Cable TV available; One living area; One dining area; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater (listed with appliances)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $153k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central El (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 675 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $34,816
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20213 Leisureland Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+13%)	9mo	$179,000	$145	59
163 Seminole Loop	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,068 (-2%)	5mo	$29,900	$28	59
154 Navajo Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,088 (0%)	12mo	$35,000	$32	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-16,037
• Equity at exit: $22,798

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-14,293
• Equity at exit: $13,220

Cash invested: $42,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,529 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,617/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,266

Max offer price $152,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $251	+0% $208	+5% $164	+10% $121
Rent	-10% $87	-5% $147	+0% $208	+5% $268	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $285	-0.5pp $247	base $208	+0.5pp $168	+1.0pp $128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,225
• Closing costs: $4,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Sierra Madre St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,800	$1.42	44d	1	0.71mi
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	44d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-30
   remarks 675-char remark
2. 2026-05-30
   listed $152,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,617 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,798 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,181/yr (+$98/mo · 73.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,565
• − Property taxes: −$1,617
• − Insurance: −$764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,468
• − Management: −$1,468
• − Depreciation: −$4,448
• Taxable income: $20
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5
• After-tax cash flow: $2,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2022-built, move-in ready manufactured home offers a clean, low-maintenance setup with modern amenities and a surveyed 0.461-acre lot. It is in good condition with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Add landscaping around the foundation — Improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Enhances energy efficiency and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Add landscaping around the foundation — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Enhances energy efficiency and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $152,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,617 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.