155 Tolsia Hts · Fort Gay, WV 25514

$120,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2002 1.45 ac lot ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country setting with total privacy on 1.45 acres! with 3 bed 2 bath city water and working well as back-up -timber rights conveyOccupied property.

Key facts

• Working well
• Timber rights convey
• City water

Tags

• 1.45 ACRES
• CITY WATER
• WORKING WELL
• TIMBER RIGHTS CONVEY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#302 in WV) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne County Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #25 of 55 in WV (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.71%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $355,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1299 Doss Hill Rd	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,450 (-12%)	14mo	$310,000	$127	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $31,560
• Equity at exit: $58,196

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $89,297
• Equity at exit: $93,133

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25514

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,447/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,097

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    price $120,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Country setting with total privacy on 1.45 acres! with 3 bed 2 bath city water and working well as back-up -timber rights convey

18. 2026-05-12
    price $120,000 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    Country setting with total privacy on 1.45 acres! with 3 bed 2 bath city water and working well as back-up -timber rights convey

19. 2026-04-20
    listed $150,000 Active 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Country setting with total privacy on 1.45 acres! with 3 bed 2 bath city water and working well as back-up -timber rights conveyOccupied property.

20. 2026-04-20
    listed $150,000 Active 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    Country setting with total privacy on 1.45 acres! with 3 bed 2 bath city water and working well as back-up -timber rights conveyOccupied property.

21. 2026-04-07
    price $199,999
22. 2026-03-23
    listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,447 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,447 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,447
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,302
• − Management: −$1,302
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$148
• After-tax cash flow: $2,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5401500
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,283
• Composite: 26.08/100
• National rank: #7297
• State rank: #25 of 55 in WV

Livability — Fort Gay

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #24443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,841

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,267 people
• By 2030: 36,578 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 33,034 · -13.7%
• By 2050: 29,671 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 22,901 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 17,421 · -54.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.4) · D 22.4% · R 75.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.1pp toward R · 2008: -18.2pp · 2024: -53.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.4 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.62%
• Current HPI: 135.5736
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-45.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $120,000 HBRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $120,000 KVBOR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $150,000 KVBOR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $150,000 HBRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $199,999 KVBOR
• 2026-03-23 Listed $220,000 KVBOR

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,447 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.