22831 Millgate Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,555 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1976 6,298 sqft lot $129/sqft · 21% below area Est $252k · 21% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently Refurbished Family Home with Spacious Layout & Huge Backyard Welcome to this inviting single story 3 bed 2 bath 2 car garage brick home, perfect for families looking for comfort, space, and functionality. Featuring a bright and open layout, the living area offers a cozy fireplace and plenty of room for gathering, relaxing, and making memories. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and a practical layout, flowing easily into the dining area—ideal for family meals and entertaining. Each bedroom is generously sized with great natural light, offering flexibility for kids’ rooms, guests, or a home office. step outside to a huge backyard, perfect for kids to play,

Key facts

• Central fireplace
• Patio
• 6,298 sq ft lot

Tags

• CENTRAL FIREPLACE
• PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Inframark, LLC; Annual association fee of $435

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1976; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Security system (owned); Lot includes other features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 13); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each 10 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chet Burchett El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 904 students, 82% FRL); Dueitt Middle (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 773 students, 84% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 603 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $200k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.15%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,975
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -18.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5715 Walnutgate Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+1%)	4mo	$220,000	$141	85
22731 Melham Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-1%)	13mo	$190,000	$124	81
5603 Rivergate Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-1%)	20mo	$190,000	$124	59
6422 Brookgate Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-7%)	12mo	$187,900	$130	52
23142 Calico Corners Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+3%)	19mo	$179,000	$112	47
22510 Arborgate Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-9%)	18mo	$190,000	$134	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,897
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,807
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 603
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$414 /mo · $4,973/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $344	+0% $287	+5% $231	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $100	-5% $194	+0% $287	+5% $381	+10% $474
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $338	base $287	+0.5pp $235	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $200,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-05-17
    historical
14. 2026-04-06
    listed $204,900 Active
15. 2026-01-01
    historical $1,795
16. 2026-01-01
    listed $1,795
17. 2026-01-01
    historical
18. 2025-12-21
    historical $1,795
19. 2025-12-18
    listed $1,795
20. 2025-12-04
    price $184,900
21. 2025-11-28
    historical $1,795
22. 2025-10-29
    listed $1,795
23. 2025-09-12
    listed $189,900 Active
24. 2014-12-04
    soldstatus
25. 2000-08-09
    soldstatus
26. 2000-07-01
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,973 · $414/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,973 · $414/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,973
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,272
• − Management: −$2,272
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $430
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$103
• After-tax cash flow: $3,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+207.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-04-06 Listed $204,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $1,795 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed for Rent $1,795 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $1,795 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed for Rent $1,795 HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $184,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-28 Rental Removed $1,795 HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed for Rent $1,795 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2014-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,973 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.