2449 Union Blvd Unit 21A · Islip, NY 11751

$239,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Condo · 170 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 1 Bedroom Co-Op Apartment In Forest Green For $112,000. A Large Deluxe Apartment W/ King Sized Master Bedroom, Hardwood Floors & New Windows. An Open Floor Plan, Great For Entertaining, Overlooking The Courtyard. Amenities Include Laundry On Site, Pool, Gym & Clubhouse. A Pet Friendly Development. Maintenance After Star Exemp Is $694.71. Why Rent When You Can Own?, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent+,Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen

Key facts

• Landscaped grounds
• Natural light
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• HEATED IN-GROUND POOL
• LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• ON-SITE LAUNDRY
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Total of 4 rooms

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $239,999 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-449 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.2% in Islip — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#59 in NY, #878 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Islip Union Free School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #186 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wing Elementary School (379 students, 35% FRL); Islip Middle School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 641 students, 37% FRL); Islip High School (math 88% / reading 93%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 892 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 20% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $240k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.02%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-66,776
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-92,070
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11751

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,915 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$1,093
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,483

Max offer price $175,017

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-283	-5% $-366	+0% $-449	+5% $-532	+10% $-615
Rent	-10% $-679	-5% $-564	+0% $-449	+5% $-334	+10% $-219
Rate	-1.0pp $-328	-0.5pp $-388	base $-449	+0.5pp $-511	+1.0pp $-575

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
584 Main St Unit 5 Islip, NY	2.0	2.0	995	$3,900	$3.92	44d	1	0.54mi
584 Main St Unit 1 Islip, NY	1.0	1.0	620	$3,150	$5.08	2d	1	0.54mi
405 E Main St Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$2,485	$3.31	44d	1	0.69mi
35 Penataquit Ave Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0–1.5	637	$2,605	$4.09	1d	14	0.87mi
700 Justine Ct Bay Shore, NY	1.0	1.0	625	$2,195	$3.51	21d	5	0.98mi
39 Bay Shore Ave Bay Shore, NY	1.0	1.0	544	$2,400	$4.41	44d	1	1.41mi
309 Brook Ave Unit 309-1A Bay Shore, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$2,415	$3.45	15d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-22
   listed $239,999 Active
3. 2017-04-28
   soldstatus $112,000 Closed 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Lovely 1 Bedroom Co-Op Apartment In Forest Green For $112,000. A Large Deluxe Apartment W/ King Sized Master Bedroom, Hardwood Floors & New Windows. An Open Floor Plan, Great For Entertaining, Overlooking The Courtyard. Amenities Include Laundry On Site, Pool, Gym & Clubhouse. A Pet Friendly Development. Maintenance After Star Exemp Is $694.71. Why Rent When You Can Own?, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent+,Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen

4. 2016-12-14
   status Under Contract 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Lovely 1 Bedroom Co-Op Apartment In Forest Green For $112,000. A Large Deluxe Apartment W/ King Sized Master Bedroom, Hardwood Floors & New Windows. An Open Floor Plan, Great For Entertaining, Overlooking The Courtyard. Amenities Include Laundry On Site, Pool, Gym & Clubhouse. A Pet Friendly Development. Maintenance After Star Exemp Is $694.71. Why Rent When You Can Own?, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent+,Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen

5. 2016-11-21
   listed $112,000 New 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Lovely 1 Bedroom Co-Op Apartment In Forest Green For $112,000. A Large Deluxe Apartment W/ King Sized Master Bedroom, Hardwood Floors & New Windows. An Open Floor Plan, Great For Entertaining, Overlooking The Courtyard. Amenities Include Laundry On Site, Pool, Gym & Clubhouse. A Pet Friendly Development. Maintenance After Star Exemp Is $694.71. Why Rent When You Can Own?, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent+,Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen

6. 2015-10-08
   historical
7. 2015-04-16
   listed $127,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,798
• − Management: −$2,798
• − HOA: −$13,116
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$8,963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,151
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Islip Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3615540
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $92,825
• Composite: 54.7/100
• National rank: #1325
• State rank: #186 of 590 in NY

Livability — Islip

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #878

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Islip, NY
• City population: 13,152
• Population (ZIP): 13,152

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -368.19%
• Current HPI: 288.0267
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+89.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Listed $239,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-28 Sold (MLS) $112,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-21 Listed $112,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-16 Listed $127,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid