4491 Birchwood Dr · Hermantown, MN 55811

$42,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Other · 12 Days on market

Built 1979 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large dinning area, open bright kitchen, ALL new doors, new carpet, new flooring planks, new window trim, approx. 2018 roof, 2015 furnace, 2022 insulated skirting and touch up underbelly, new vents, new toilet, new light fixtures. 2 nice size bedrooms, master has woods view, 1 bath w/ 2 sinks, w/ d hookups, wood burning fire place, a small bonus room nice for playroom or hobby space/office/indoor storage, etc. Clean. 2 sheds, off street private parking, covered patio. Located behind Northern Tool in Bullyans Mobile Estates, lot rent $535.

Key facts

• New flooring planks
• New doors
• New window trim

Tags

• OPEN BRIGHT KITCHEN
• NEW DOORS
• NEW CARPET
• NEW FLOORING PLANKS
• NEW WINDOW TRIM
• INSULATED SKIRTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $42k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $42k).
• Cap rate 36.2% vs local median 2.1% in Hermantown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#446 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hermantown Public School District (rural): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #73 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 106.82%
• DSCR: 5.75
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $62,662
• Equity at exit: $6,262

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.95×
• Total profit: $152,258
• Equity at exit: $3,631

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55811

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$52 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $1,047

Break-even live

Break-even rent $367

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,076	-5% $1,061	+0% $1,047	+5% $1,032	+10% $1,018
Rent	-10% $913	-5% $980	+0% $1,047	+5% $1,114	+10% $1,181
Rate	-1.0pp $1,068	-0.5pp $1,058	base $1,047	+0.5pp $1,036	+1.0pp $1,025

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4877 W Arrowhead Rd Unit 124 Hermantown, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,750	$1.47	14d	1	1.02mi
4877 W Arrowhead Rd Hermantown, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,695	$1.42	44d	1	1.02mi
4877 W Arrowhead Rd Unit 219 Hermantown, MN	1.0	1.0	860	$1,450	$1.69	44d	1	1.02mi
4877 W Arrowhead Rd Unit 220 Hermantown, MN	1.0	1.0	860	$1,450	$1.69	14d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $42,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $42,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $42,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 545-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    listed $42,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $12,646
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,035
• After-tax cash flow: $9,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive structural repairs and replacement of major systems, significantly impacting its value and safety.

Repairs flagged

• Major Structural damage — Significant structural issues are evident
• Major Roof — Severe damage to the roof
• Major Exterior — Severe damage to the exterior
• Major Flooring — Severe damage to the flooring
• Major Interior walls/paint — Severe damage to the interior walls and paint
• Major Windows — Severe damage to the windows
• Major Foundation/structure — Severe damage to the foundation and structure
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Severe damage to the HVAC and mechanical systems

Value-add opportunities

• Both Structural repairs — Essential for safety and functionality
• Both Roof replacement — Critical for weather protection and safety
• Both Exterior repairs — Improves curb appeal and safety
• Both Flooring replacement — Enhances comfort and safety
• Both Interior wall repairs and paint — Enhances aesthetics and safety
• Both Window repairs or replacement — Improves safety and energy efficiency
• Both Foundation and structure repairs — Essential for long-term stability and safety
• Both HVAC and mechanical repairs — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Structural damage · Significant structural issues are evident	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Severe damage to the roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · Severe damage to the exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Severe damage to the flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · Severe damage to the interior walls and paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Severe damage to the windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · Severe damage to the foundation and structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Severe damage to the HVAC and mechanical systems	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Structural repairs — Essential for safety and functionality ↑
• Both Roof replacement — Critical for weather protection and safety ↑
• Both Exterior repairs — Improves curb appeal and safety ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Enhances comfort and safety ↑
• Both Interior wall repairs and paint — Enhances aesthetics and safety ↑
• Both Window repairs or replacement — Improves safety and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Foundation and structure repairs — Essential for long-term stability and safety ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical repairs — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hermantown Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2713920
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $67,133
• Composite: 46.47/100
• National rank: #2438
• State rank: #73 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hermantown

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #10529

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hermantown, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 28,218
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 28,118
• Household income: $79,804
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.84%
• Current HPI: 198.2613
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $42,000 FSBO.com