9391 N Sherman Dr · Citrus Springs, FL 34434

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,617 sqft · Land · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come and build your dream home on this fantastic . 40 buildable vacant corner lot in the community of Citrus Springs in the Nature Coast. This lot is listed in a homes only neighborhood by many favorable areas of recreation: including Rainbow River, Rainbow Springs, Lake Rosseau, Gulf of Mexico, the Withlacoochee River, a few blocks from the Withlacoochee State Trail for walking and biking (46-miles of multi-use, paved trail, winding through stunning countryside), playgrounds, golf, tennis and community center. Just a short trip to shopping, restaurants, medical offices and great schools. Available in Citrus Springs is the Citrus Springs Community Center that offers activities galore including concerts and dinners. Citrus Springs Golf & Country Club an 18-hole golf course alongside a quaint lunch restaurant with full liquor bar. The Citrus Springs Civic Association offers social activities, educational opportunities, entertainment, and community improvement.

Key facts

• Dishwasher
• Range with hood
• Cathedral ceiling

Tags

• CATHEDRAL CEILING
• VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR
• RANGE WITH HOOD
• DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Concrete surfaces; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; New construction
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Block and slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Paved road access; County road frontage; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Laminate countertops; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows; French doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in garage

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Citrus Springs Elementary School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 817 students, 71% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $250k implies a 941% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,823 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.76%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-54,446
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-65,295
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,908 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $218,138

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9065 N Akola Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,795	$1.19	21d	1	0.35mi
9066 N Akola Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	21d	1	0.38mi
754 W Deacon Pl Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,800	$1.24	21d	1	0.46mi
572 W Bluster Pl Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	21d	1	0.58mi
9924 N Country Club Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,795	$1.22	21d	1	0.61mi
316 W Wason St Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1985	$2,200	$1.11	21d	1	0.74mi
9018 N Mendoza Way Citrus Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$1,499	$1.22	21d	1	0.79mi
904 W Rum Pl Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,699	$1.17	21d	1	0.81mi
9676 N Jourden Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,750	$1.29	21d	1	0.83mi
9298 N Mendoza Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	21d	1	0.88mi
8450 N Travis Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,900	$1.06	21d	1	0.96mi
9475 N Camel Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	21d	1	1.02mi
9995 N Sandree Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,895	$1.30	21d	1	1.02mi
8398 N Jay Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,700	$1.10	21d	1	1.02mi
696 W Hallam Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,900	$1.06	21d	1	1.02mi
8190 N Wakefield Dr Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1772	$1,750	$0.99	21d	1	1.22mi
8180 N Wakefield Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,695	$1.13	21d	1	1.23mi
8755 N Nobleton Way Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1449	$1,815	$1.25	21d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $249,900 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   pricedays on market $249,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $244,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-05-15
   listed $244,900 Active
8. 2024-05-31
   soldstatus $24,000 Closed 978-char remark

   Show marketing remark (978 chars)

   Come and build your dream home on this fantastic . 40 buildable vacant corner lot in the community of Citrus Springs in the Nature Coast. This lot is listed in a homes only neighborhood by many favorable areas of recreation: including Rainbow River, Rainbow Springs, Lake Rosseau, Gulf of Mexico, the Withlacoochee River, a few blocks from the Withlacoochee State Trail for walking and biking (46-miles of multi-use, paved trail, winding through stunning countryside), playgrounds, golf, tennis and community center. Just a short trip to shopping, restaurants, medical offices and great schools. Available in Citrus Springs is the Citrus Springs Community Center that offers activities galore including concerts and dinners. Citrus Springs Golf & Country Club an 18-hole golf course alongside a quaint lunch restaurant with full liquor bar. The Citrus Springs Civic Association offers social activities, educational opportunities, entertainment, and community improvement.

9. 2024-04-24
   status Pending 978-char remark

   Show marketing remark (978 chars)

   Come and build your dream home on this fantastic . 40 buildable vacant corner lot in the community of Citrus Springs in the Nature Coast. This lot is listed in a homes only neighborhood by many favorable areas of recreation: including Rainbow River, Rainbow Springs, Lake Rosseau, Gulf of Mexico, the Withlacoochee River, a few blocks from the Withlacoochee State Trail for walking and biking (46-miles of multi-use, paved trail, winding through stunning countryside), playgrounds, golf, tennis and community center. Just a short trip to shopping, restaurants, medical offices and great schools. Available in Citrus Springs is the Citrus Springs Community Center that offers activities galore including concerts and dinners. Citrus Springs Golf & Country Club an 18-hole golf course alongside a quaint lunch restaurant with full liquor bar. The Citrus Springs Civic Association offers social activities, educational opportunities, entertainment, and community improvement.

10. 2024-01-24
    listed $29,000 Active 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Come and build your dream home on this fantastic . 40 buildable vacant corner lot in the community of Citrus Springs in the Nature Coast. This lot is listed in a homes only neighborhood by many favorable areas of recreation: including Rainbow River, Rainbow Springs, Lake Rosseau, Gulf of Mexico, the Withlacoochee River, a few blocks from the Withlacoochee State Trail for walking and biking (46-miles of multi-use, paved trail, winding through stunning countryside), playgrounds, golf, tennis and community center. Just a short trip to shopping, restaurants, medical offices and great schools. Available in Citrus Springs is the Citrus Springs Community Center that offers activities galore including concerts and dinners. Citrus Springs Golf & Country Club an 18-hole golf course alongside a quaint lunch restaurant with full liquor bar. The Citrus Springs Civic Association offers social activities, educational opportunities, entertainment, and community improvement.

11. 2023-12-20
    soldstatus $15,500 Closed 1061-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1061 chars)

    * * * HIGHEST & BEST OFFER BY NOON ON 12/5. Come and build your dream home on this fantastic . 40 buildable vacant corner lot in the community of Citrus Springs in the Nature Coast. This lot is listed in a homes only neighborhood by many favorable areas of recreation: including Rainbow River, Rainbow Springs, Lake Rosseau, Gulf of Mexico, the Withlacoochee River, a few blocks from the Withlacoochee State Trail for walking and biking (46-miles of multi-use, paved trail, winding through stunning countryside), playgrounds, golf, tennis and community center. Just a short trip to shopping, restaurants, medical offices and great schools. Available in Citrus Springs is the Citrus Springs Community Center that offers activities galore including concerts and dinners. Citrus Springs Golf & Country Club an 18-hole golf course alongside a quaint lunch restaurant with full liquor bar. The Citrus Springs Civic Association offers social activities, educational opportunities, entertainment, and community improvement. Don't miss out, call us today!

12. 2023-12-20
    soldstatus $15,500

    Show marketing remark (1061 chars)

    * * * HIGHEST & BEST OFFER BY NOON ON 12/5. Come and build your dream home on this fantastic . 40 buildable vacant corner lot in the community of Citrus Springs in the Nature Coast. This lot is listed in a homes only neighborhood by many favorable areas of recreation: including Rainbow River, Rainbow Springs, Lake Rosseau, Gulf of Mexico, the Withlacoochee River, a few blocks from the Withlacoochee State Trail for walking and biking (46-miles of multi-use, paved trail, winding through stunning countryside), playgrounds, golf, tennis and community center. Just a short trip to shopping, restaurants, medical offices and great schools. Available in Citrus Springs is the Citrus Springs Community Center that offers activities galore including concerts and dinners. Citrus Springs Golf & Country Club an 18-hole golf course alongside a quaint lunch restaurant with full liquor bar. The Citrus Springs Civic Association offers social activities, educational opportunities, entertainment, and community improvement. Don't miss out, call us today!

13. 2023-12-05
    status Pending 1061-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1061 chars)

    * * * HIGHEST & BEST OFFER BY NOON ON 12/5. Come and build your dream home on this fantastic . 40 buildable vacant corner lot in the community of Citrus Springs in the Nature Coast. This lot is listed in a homes only neighborhood by many favorable areas of recreation: including Rainbow River, Rainbow Springs, Lake Rosseau, Gulf of Mexico, the Withlacoochee River, a few blocks from the Withlacoochee State Trail for walking and biking (46-miles of multi-use, paved trail, winding through stunning countryside), playgrounds, golf, tennis and community center. Just a short trip to shopping, restaurants, medical offices and great schools. Available in Citrus Springs is the Citrus Springs Community Center that offers activities galore including concerts and dinners. Citrus Springs Golf & Country Club an 18-hole golf course alongside a quaint lunch restaurant with full liquor bar. The Citrus Springs Civic Association offers social activities, educational opportunities, entertainment, and community improvement. Don't miss out, call us today!

14. 2023-11-30
    listed $13,900 Active 1061-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1061 chars)

    * * * HIGHEST & BEST OFFER BY NOON ON 12/5. Come and build your dream home on this fantastic . 40 buildable vacant corner lot in the community of Citrus Springs in the Nature Coast. This lot is listed in a homes only neighborhood by many favorable areas of recreation: including Rainbow River, Rainbow Springs, Lake Rosseau, Gulf of Mexico, the Withlacoochee River, a few blocks from the Withlacoochee State Trail for walking and biking (46-miles of multi-use, paved trail, winding through stunning countryside), playgrounds, golf, tennis and community center. Just a short trip to shopping, restaurants, medical offices and great schools. Available in Citrus Springs is the Citrus Springs Community Center that offers activities galore including concerts and dinners. Citrus Springs Golf & Country Club an 18-hole golf course alongside a quaint lunch restaurant with full liquor bar. The Citrus Springs Civic Association offers social activities, educational opportunities, entertainment, and community improvement. Don't miss out, call us today!

15. 2023-11-30
    listed $13,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (1061 chars)

    * * * HIGHEST & BEST OFFER BY NOON ON 12/5. Come and build your dream home on this fantastic . 40 buildable vacant corner lot in the community of Citrus Springs in the Nature Coast. This lot is listed in a homes only neighborhood by many favorable areas of recreation: including Rainbow River, Rainbow Springs, Lake Rosseau, Gulf of Mexico, the Withlacoochee River, a few blocks from the Withlacoochee State Trail for walking and biking (46-miles of multi-use, paved trail, winding through stunning countryside), playgrounds, golf, tennis and community center. Just a short trip to shopping, restaurants, medical offices and great schools. Available in Citrus Springs is the Citrus Springs Community Center that offers activities galore including concerts and dinners. Citrus Springs Golf & Country Club an 18-hole golf course alongside a quaint lunch restaurant with full liquor bar. The Citrus Springs Civic Association offers social activities, educational opportunities, entertainment, and community improvement. Don't miss out, call us today!

16. 2006-12-31
    historical
17. 2005-12-09
    listed $88,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,832
• − Management: −$1,832
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$7,031
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,687
• After-tax cash flow: $-947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Springs, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,730
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 171.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+175.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $244,900 RACC
• 2024-05-31 Sold (MLS) $24,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-24 Listed $29,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records
• 2023-12-20 Sold (MLS) $15,500 RACC
• 2023-12-05 Pending — RACC
• 2023-11-30 Listed $13,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-30 Listed $13,900 RACC
• 2006-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-09 Listed $88,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $335 · +64.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.