171 Forest Rd E · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$299,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1927 0.35 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious home on large lot with tons of potential!! Being sold "As is". Will be delivered vacant. Walk to water. Great investment - Cash is king!

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Built 1927
• Listed 29 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tangier Smith Elementary School (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #1,181 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 61% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $294,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.83%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $617,016
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
145 Monroe Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,161 (-1%)	7mo	$626,000	$290	65
309 Dogwood Rd W	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,208 (+1%)	4mo	$410,000	$186	63
30 Lakeview Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,200 (+0%)	1mo	$620,000	$282	57
88 Monroe Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,000 (-9%)	19mo	$500,000	$250	52
100 Daisy Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,000 (-9%)	11mo	$580,000	$290	46
97 Elder Dr	0.45mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,492 (+14%)	8mo	$430,000	$173	44
144 Forest Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (-13%)	21mo	$450,000	$237	44
77 Hemlock Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,000 (-9%)	15mo	$580,000	$290	43
75 Hemlock Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,000 (-9%)	18mo	$579,999	$290	41
96 Daisy Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,000 (-9%)	19mo	$580,000	$290	40
110 Dahlia Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,972 (-10%)	22mo	$530,000	$269	29
149 Daisy Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,921 (-12%)	19mo	$475,000	$247	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $191,017
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.47×
• Total profit: $541,764
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,083 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$638 /mo · $7,657/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$857
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,533

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	1d	1	0.75mi
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	43d	1	0.86mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	1d	1	1.07mi
126 Trafalgar Dr Shirley, NY	3.0	2.5	2100	$4,500	$2.14	1d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   status Active
3. 2026-03-05
   historical
4. 2026-02-22
   listed $299,000 Active
5. 2022-06-24
   soldstatus $220,000
6. 2022-04-29
   soldstatus $225,000 Closed
7. 2021-04-27
   status Pending
8. 2021-04-20
   status Active
9. 2021-04-13
   historical
10. 2021-04-11
    listed $199,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,657 · $638/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,657 · $638/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$7,657
• − Insurance: −$7,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,920
• − Management: −$3,920
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $1,031
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$248
• After-tax cash flow: $4,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+49.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-29 Sold (MLS) $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-20 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-11 Listed $199,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,657 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.