165 Benton Hollow Rd · Liberty, NY 12758

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,876 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1995 1.00 ac lot Est $195k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedrrom Ranch with Fireplace, Workshop and Garage. This spacious 3-bedroom ranch offers both a living room and family room, centered around a cozy fireplace for gatherings. The basement features high ceiling and a three-station workshop perfect for hobbyists or professionals. A convenient garage adds storage and parking flexibility. While the home is move-in ready, has great bones and unique features, it does need some TLC making it an excellent opportunity for buyers to add their own updates and personal touch. This home sits just outside of the village close to schools, shopping, golf courses, Bethel Woods, Kartrite, etc.

Key facts

• High ceiling
• Close to schools
• Garage

Tags

• FIREPLACE
• WORKSHOP
• GARAGE
• HIGH CEILING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($167/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#890 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Central School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #569 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 691 students, 64% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #664 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 529 students, 68% FRL); Liberty High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 596 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Liberty Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.

Recommended offer $192,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,104
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Benton Hollow Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,876 (0%)	1mo	$195,000	$104	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $107,232
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $315,373
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12758

• Home prices YoY: 15.4%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$431 /mo · $5,178/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,943

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $69	+0% $14	+5% $-41	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-64	+0% $14	+5% $91	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $63	base $14	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-14
   listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,178 · $431/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,178 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,533
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$5,178
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,981
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$715
• After-tax cash flow: $882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617220
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,542
• Composite: 27.65/100
• National rank: #6920
• State rank: #569 of 590 in NY

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #890
• US rank: #17254

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 8,525
• Population (ZIP): 4,061

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Danish 4% Subsaharan African 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 59.59%
• Current HPI: 446.6757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listed $195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,178 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.