941 Peace In The Valley Rd · Blue Eye, MO 65611

$198,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,061 sqft · Other · 109 Days on market

Built 2018 9,583 sqft lot $187/sqft · 24% below area Est $261k · 24% under $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Serenity!Take a look at this custom-built log cabin nestled along the banks of a bubbling wet-weather creek known as Brushy Creek. Surrounded by nature, this charming retreat offers comfort, character, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Inside, you'll find soaring vaulted ceilings and a grand open floor plan that creates a warm, inviting atmosphere. The spacious loft serves as a third bedroom, perfect for guests or additional living space. A huge front porch and expansive back deck provide the ideal spots to relax and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. The kitchen is designed for both function and gathering, featuring an island with bar seating that overlooks the living area. The dining room offers ample space for a large table and includes an oversized pantry for exceptional storage. The spacious primary suite boasts generous storage and an adjacent bath complete with a jetted tub and plenty of room to unwind. Fresh paint, new window blinds, and ceiling fans add modern touches throughout. For added peace of mind, the cabin includes a backup propane heating system and a two-burner stove--perfect for those times when the electricity may go out. The unfinished basement offers storage galore and endless potential for future expansion.

Key facts

• Huge front porch
• Expansive back deck
• 9,583 sq ft lot

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT LOG CABIN
• BUBBLING WET WEATHER CREEK
• SOARING VAULTED CEILINGS
• GRAND OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HUGE FRONT PORCH
• EXPANSIVE BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Blue Eye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#449 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, crime F.
• Blue Eye R-V (rural): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #107 of 324 in MO (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,048 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,496
• List price: $198,000
• Delta: -24.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $14,478
• Equity at exit: $84,987

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $64,216
• Equity at exit: $127,914

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65611

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $778/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,712

Max offer price $182,500

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $198,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $198,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $198,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $198,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $198,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $198,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,000 Active 90 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $198,000 Active 89 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    price $198,000 1261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1261 chars)

    Welcome to Serenity!Take a look at this custom-built log cabin nestled along the banks of a bubbling wet-weather creek known as Brushy Creek. Surrounded by nature, this charming retreat offers comfort, character, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Inside, you'll find soaring vaulted ceilings and a grand open floor plan that creates a warm, inviting atmosphere. The spacious loft serves as a third bedroom, perfect for guests or additional living space. A huge front porch and expansive back deck provide the ideal spots to relax and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. The kitchen is designed for both function and gathering, featuring an island with bar seating that overlooks the living area. The dining room offers ample space for a large table and includes an oversized pantry for exceptional storage. The spacious primary suite boasts generous storage and an adjacent bath complete with a jetted tub and plenty of room to unwind. Fresh paint, new window blinds, and ceiling fans add modern touches throughout. For added peace of mind, the cabin includes a backup propane heating system and a two-burner stove--perfect for those times when the electricity may go out. The unfinished basement offers storage galore and endless potential for future expansion.

18. 2026-03-02
    listed $189,000 Active 1261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1261 chars)

    Welcome to Serenity!Take a look at this custom-built log cabin nestled along the banks of a bubbling wet-weather creek known as Brushy Creek. Surrounded by nature, this charming retreat offers comfort, character, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Inside, you'll find soaring vaulted ceilings and a grand open floor plan that creates a warm, inviting atmosphere. The spacious loft serves as a third bedroom, perfect for guests or additional living space. A huge front porch and expansive back deck provide the ideal spots to relax and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. The kitchen is designed for both function and gathering, featuring an island with bar seating that overlooks the living area. The dining room offers ample space for a large table and includes an oversized pantry for exceptional storage. The spacious primary suite boasts generous storage and an adjacent bath complete with a jetted tub and plenty of room to unwind. Fresh paint, new window blinds, and ceiling fans add modern touches throughout. For added peace of mind, the cabin includes a backup propane heating system and a two-burner stove--perfect for those times when the electricity may go out. The unfinished basement offers storage galore and endless potential for future expansion.

19. 2025-10-20
    price $199,900
20. 2025-09-15
    price $215,000
21. 2025-05-14
    listed $229,000 Active
22. 2017-10-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,921 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,143/yr (+$95/mo · 146.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$778
• − Insurance: −$1,787
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$4,484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $23/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Eye R-V
• NCES district ID: 2905280
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,591
• Composite: 37.08/100
• National rank: #4500
• State rank: #107 of 324 in MO

Livability — Blue Eye

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #449
• US rank: #18289

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blue Eye, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,784

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Current HPI: 204.4936
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-13.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $198,000 SOMO
• 2026-03-02 Listed $189,000 SOMO
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $199,900 SOMO
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $215,000 SOMO
• 2025-05-14 Listed $229,000 SOMO
• 2017-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+25.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $778 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.