1845 Wye Mills Ln · Bel Air North, MD 21015

$294,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,326 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1992 2,000 sqft lot Est $294k · at est. $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OFFER DEADLINE: Tuesday, April 14th at 10:00 am. Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome in the desirable community of the Villages of Thomas Run! Nestled in a quiet, walkable neighborhood, this home offers a peaceful setting while still being conveniently located to the heart of Bel Air's downtown main street, close to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Inside, you’ll find a bright and airy layout filled with natural light, a main level powder room and functional eat-in kitchen with direct access to a spacious deck—perfect for morning coffee or entertaining—overlooking a serene wooded backdrop for added privacy. Upstairs, three comfortable bedrooms i

Key facts

• $125 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1992

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Property condition listed as very good; Not in a federal flood zone; Property manager present; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $125; HOA covers trash

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking in a parking lot; Two assigned spaces (space #1845)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water; Electric power
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Entry level is 2
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built by Ryland; Basement is daylight/full, unfinished with walkout, windows, rear entrance, connecting stairway, rough bath plumbing and sump pump
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Backs to trees; Trees/wooded setting; Bay/bow windows

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Stove
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Fully carpeted; Vinyl; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling
• Interior features: Tub/shower; Combination dining and living area; Kitchen with eat-in area; Carpeted areas
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in the basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.2% in Bel Air North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#35 in MD, #1,269 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hickory Elementary (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #220 of 860 statewide, top 26%, 657 students, 22% FRL); Southampton Middle (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #43 of 225 statewide, top 20%, 1,175 students, 21% FRL); C. Milton Wright High (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B-, #59 of 222 statewide, top 27%, 1,266 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Harford County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $294k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,085 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.84%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,372
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1845 Wye Mills Ln	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,326 (0%)	1mo	$294,500	$222	95
1806 Glendale Ln	0.17mi	3/3.0	1,320 (-0%)	0mo	$339,900	$258	89
1834 Wye Mills Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,280 (-4%)	5mo	$233,000	$182	87
1808 Bramble Brook Ln	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,320 (-0%)	2mo	$370,000	$280	85
1812 Chester Way	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,320 (-0%)	19mo	$330,000	$250	78
1715 Chesterfield Sq	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,320 (-0%)	3mo	$320,000	$242	78
1874 Oxford Sq	0.23mi	3/3.5	1,326 (0%)	9mo	$280,000	$211	77
1840 Wye Mills Ln	0.05mi	3/3.5	1,280 (-4%)	23mo	$321,000	$251	68
1963 Millington Sq	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,386 (+4%)	20mo	$250,000	$180	64
1818 Bramble Brook Ln	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,246 (-6%)	20mo	$274,000	$220	63
1128 Oakwood Ln	0.30mi	3/3.0	1,360 (+3%)	22mo	$255,000	$188	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-36,297
• Equity at exit: $43,911

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-7,001
• Equity at exit: $25,463

Cash invested: $82,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21015

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,544
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,490/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,531

Max offer price $294,500

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $210	+0% $126	+5% $43	+10% $-41
Rent	-10% $-86	-5% $20	+0% $126	+5% $232	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $201	base $126	+0.5pp $50	+1.0pp $-28

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,625
• Closing costs: $8,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1813 Chester Way Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,500	$1.39	0d	1	0.15mi
2219 Jack Ln Bel Air, MD	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1287	$2,834	$2.20	0d	17	1.24mi
1302 Roman Ridge Way Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,250	$1.55	19d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $294,500 Active
3. 2026-04-03
   historical $294,500
4. 1992-04-14
   soldstatus $96,680
5. 1991-09-26
   soldstatus $26,325

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,490 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,850 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: +$360/yr (+$30/mo · 14.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,497
• − Property taxes: −$2,490
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,583
• − Management: −$2,583
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,567
• Taxable loss: −$3,403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$817
• After-tax cash flow: $2,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air North

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #1269

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air North, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 30,013
• Household income: $137,281
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.26%
• Current HPI: 251.2512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1018.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $294,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-03 Coming Soon $294,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 1992-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $96,680 Public Records
• 1991-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $26,325 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,490 · +125.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.