3411 S Camino Seco -- #207 · Tucson, AZ 85730

$45,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 268 Days on market

Built 1978 Fair condition $43/sqft · 35% below area Est $69k · 35% under $699/mo HOA · 44% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ Located on a quiet street this charming home has a large yard and screened porch. Mature trees and large shed and beautifully planted front of home. Spacious living room dining combined, with sliders leading to enclosed patio. Beautifully painted light interior with large windows for plenty of light. Charming galley kitchen with gas stove. Home will be sold as-is, with no upgrades or repairs. This will not disappoint!

Key facts

• Galley kitchen
• Large yard
• Screened porch

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• SCREENED PORCH
• MATURE TREES
• LARGE SHED
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• GALLEY KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.26%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,000
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -34.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3411 S Camino Seco #12	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+4%)	3mo	$69,000	$63	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $4,066
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $7,435
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85730

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$699
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3455 S Magda Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	43d	1	0.21mi
3673 S Camino Seco Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	800	$945	$1.18	23d	1	0.25mi
8838 E Arbor St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	799	$1,295	$1.62	20d	1	0.54mi
2650 S Brandywine Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,500	$1.12	43d	1	0.62mi
8829 E Eagle Creek Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,830	$1.43	16d	1	0.70mi
8981 E Golf Links Rd Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	971	$1,890	$1.95	43d	1	0.75mi
2618 S Camino Seco Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1442	$1,299	$0.90	23d	1	0.78mi
4289 S Goodall Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,950	$1.42	43d	1	0.82mi
8737 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,095	$1.51	43d	1	0.88mi
9172 E Corte Arroyo Oeste Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	3d	1	0.92mi
4433 S Sunrise Bluff Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,895	$1.29	23d	1	0.93mi
8250 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,600	$1.85	1d	22	0.94mi
8763 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,995	$1.58	3d	1	0.96mi
8024 E Victoria Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,500	$1.33	23d	1	1.00mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,308	$1.49	3d	1	1.00mi
9009 E Kinross Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,715	$1.32	21d	1	1.02mi
8755 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,925	$1.31	17d	1	1.02mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	21d	1	1.10mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	3d	1	1.10mi
7983 E Escalante Rd Unit 3 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,075	$1.26	14d	1	1.11mi
3410 S Lakeside Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,800	$1.42	23d	1	1.12mi
8061 E Senate St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1298	$1,700	$1.31	21d	1	1.13mi
2024 S Birdie Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,675	$1.13	3d	1	1.16mi
2425 S Rose Peak Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,200	$1.46	17d	1	1.16mi
4775 S Wild Rose Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,645	$1.41	23d	1	1.17mi
4775 S Wild Rose Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,695	$1.45	3d	1	1.17mi
9055 E Alderpoint Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,695	$1.45	21d	1	1.21mi
9801 E Domenic Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,791	$1.25	11d	1	1.24mi
9699 E Vendela St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,800	$1.55	43d	1	1.34mi
9746 E Sascha St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,800	$1.76	14d	1	1.35mi
7701 E 45th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,395	$1.24	11d	1	1.38mi
9961 E Skyward Way Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,550	$1.53	3d	1	1.47mi
9960 E Banister Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,575	$1.26	43d	1	1.49mi
3892 S Evergreen Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	730	$1,295	$1.77	43d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $699 · $8,388/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 268 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 267 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 266 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 265 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 263 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 258 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 254 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 253 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 252 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 251 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 250 DOM
15. 2025-12-04
    price $45,000 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    55+ Located on a quiet street this charming home has a large yard and screened porch. Mature trees and large shed and beautifully planted front of home. Spacious living room dining combined, with sliders leading to enclosed patio. Beautifully painted light interior with large windows for plenty of light. Charming galley kitchen with gas stove. Home will be sold as-is, with no upgrades or repairs. This will not disappoint!

16. 2025-09-23
    listed $55,000 Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    55+ Located on a quiet street this charming home has a large yard and screened porch. Mature trees and large shed and beautifully planted front of home. Spacious living room dining combined, with sliders leading to enclosed patio. Beautifully painted light interior with large windows for plenty of light. Charming galley kitchen with gas stove. Home will be sold as-is, with no upgrades or repairs. This will not disappoint!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,524
• − Management: −$1,524
• − HOA: −$8,388
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $2,886
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$693
• After-tax cash flow: $2,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with painting, flooring refinishing, and kitchen cabinet refinishing being the highest-ROI updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Light-colored walls show some discoloration
• Minor Flooring — Wooden flooring in living room shows some wear
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Some wear visible

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Floor refinishing — Enhances living room space and adds value
• Both Kitchen cabinet refinishing — Enhances kitchen functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Light-colored walls show some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Wooden flooring in living room shows some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen cabinets · Some wear visible	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Floor refinishing — Enhances living room space and adds value ↑
• Both Kitchen cabinet refinishing — Enhances kitchen functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,399
• Household income: $62,090
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.41%
• Current HPI: 304.999
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.16%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $55,000 ARMLS