Duval Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$467,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,444 sqft · SingleFamily · 174 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Duval floor plan in the Portrait Series features 2,444 sqft, 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This two-story floor plan offers an enlarged main shower option, 2 kitchen upgrade options, 3rd garage bay option, fireplace options, family room vault options, and covered patio options.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 173 days

🏗️ New construction. The $467,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $487,849.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $468k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $467k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $412k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.2% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1543 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $411,831 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.78%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $487,849
• List price: $467,990
• Delta: -4.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2010 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,529 (+4%)	2mo	$574,900	$227	92
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-3%)	4mo	$365,000	$153	79
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,517 (+3%)	6mo	$359,900	$143	79
2326 Calm Channel Ct	0.34mi	4/3.5	2,526 (+3%)	0mo	$412,000	$163	76
1610 Country Air Ln	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,388 (-2%)	2mo	$369,900	$155	74
8831 Morning Glow Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,388 (-2%)	1mo	$370,000	$155	72
8711 Fairbrook Dr	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,413 (-1%)	8mo	$409,900	$170	71
9311 Crescent Mill Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,577 (+5%)	1mo	$419,900	$163	67
1743 Country Air Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,290 (-6%)	8mo	$385,000	$168	60
1722 Country Air Ln	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,773 (+14%)	8mo	$419,000	$151	54
1639 Rosedale Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,763 (+13%)	6mo	$399,950	$145	52
1506 Country Air Ln	0.51mi	4/3.5	2,808 (+15%)	5mo	$425,000	$151	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-44,730
• Equity at exit: $102,316

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-40,384
• Equity at exit: $94,769

Cash invested: $136,598 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 118 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 23.6 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $454,992 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 90 d
• This list price: 53% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1543
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,668 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,558
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$610 /mo · $7,318/yr
• Insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$980
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,268

Max offer price $487,849

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $653	-5% $485	+0% $316	+5% $147	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $132	+0% $316	+5% $500	+10% $685
Rate	-1.0pp $562	-0.5pp $440	base $316	+0.5pp $190	+1.0pp $61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,962
• Closing costs: $14,635
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2143	$5,125	$2.39	0d	1	0.13mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	71d	1	0.13mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	25d	1	0.13mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$5,700	$2.66	3d	1	0.13mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	35d	1	0.46mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	59d	1	0.87mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	93d	1	0.97mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,499	$1.25	1d	1	1.46mi
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	28d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-07-01
   days on market $467,990 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-06-30
   days on market $467,990 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-06-29
   days on market $467,990 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-06-28
   days on market $467,990 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-06-27
   days on market $467,990 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-06-26
   days on market $467,990 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-24
   days on market $467,990 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-06-22
   days on market $467,990 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-21
   days on market $467,990 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-18
    days on market $467,990 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-06-17
    days on market $467,990 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-06-16
    days on market $467,990 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-06-15
    days on market $467,990 Active 158 DOM
14. 2026-06-13
    days on market $467,990 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-06-09
    days on market $467,990 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-06-07
    days on market $467,990 Active 150 DOM
17. 2026-06-04
    days on market $467,990 Active 147 DOM
18. 2026-06-03
    days on market $467,990 Active 146 DOM
19. 2026-06-02
    days on market $467,990 Active 145 DOM
20. 2026-06-01
    days on market $467,990 Active 144 DOM
21. 2026-05-31
    days on market $467,990 Active 143 DOM
22. 2026-01-09
    listed $467,990 Active 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    The Duval floor plan in the Portrait Series features 2,444 sqft, 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This two-story floor plan offers an enlarged main shower option, 2 kitchen upgrade options, 3rd garage bay option, fireplace options, family room vault options, and covered patio options.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,327
• − Property taxes: −$7,318
• − Insurance: −$2,439
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,481
• − Management: −$4,481
• − Depreciation: −$14,192
• Taxable loss: −$4,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $4,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to add value through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Kitchen upgrade — Expands living space and adds modern features ↑
• Both Bathroom upgrades — Enhances functionality and adds modern features ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Ridge Point H S B TX #198/1,632 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Listed $467,990 Zillow