None · Lockhart, TX 78644

$359,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,376 sqft · MultiFamily · 125 Days on market

Built 2018 Fair condition 8,659 sqft lot $151/sqft · 21% below area Est $456k · 21% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Lockhart is a growing community 37 miles to Austin, TX.

Key facts

• 8,659 sq ft lot
• Built 2018
• Listed 124 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $359k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($640/yr) — positive. Per door: $27/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $316k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 452 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,208/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 324% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 800% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.64%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $455,810
• List price: $359,000
• Delta: -21.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1310 Hausman Dr	0.05mi	6/4.0	2,336 (-2%)	16mo	$391,000	$167	82
1129 W San Antonio St	0.51mi	6/4.0	2,650 (+12%)	4mo	$471,000	$178	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-54,727
• Equity at exit: $53,528

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-43,083
• Equity at exit: $31,040

Cash invested: $100,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 18.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$449 /mo · $5,385/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$674
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,140

Max offer price $359,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $301	-5% $177	+0% $53	+5% $-71	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-200	-5% $-73	+0% $53	+5% $180	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $145	base $53	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-134

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	—	$3,208
Total (2 units)			$3,208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,750
• Closing costs: $10,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 San Jacinto St Lockhart, TX	5.0	3.0	2667	$2,500	$0.94	44d	1	1.02mi
423 S Main St Lockhart, TX	5.0	3.0	2469	$2,100	$0.85	24d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $359,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $359,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    price $359,000 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Lockhart is a growing community 37 miles to Austin, TX.

15. 2026-03-21
    price $369,900 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Lockhart is a growing community 37 miles to Austin, TX.

16. 2026-02-14
    listed $39,900 Active 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Lockhart is a growing community 37 miles to Austin, TX.

17. 2026-02-14
    price $399,000 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Lockhart is a growing community 37 miles to Austin, TX.

18. 2025-05-13
    price
19. 2025-03-06
    listed Active
20. 2023-01-09
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,110
• − Property taxes: −$5,385
• − Insurance: −$1,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,080
• − Management: −$3,080
• − Depreciation: −$10,444
• Taxable loss: −$5,397
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,295
• After-tax cash flow: $1,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This multi-family property requires significant repairs and maintenance, including a new roof and windows, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No photos of the roof
• Major exterior siding — No photos of the exterior siding
• Major windows — No photos of the windows

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both repair and replace roof — A new roof is essential for long-term durability and value
• Both repair and replace windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No photos of the roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · No photos of the exterior siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No photos of the windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both repair and replace roof — A new roof is essential for long-term durability and value ↑
• Both repair and replace windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 324.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $359,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $369,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $39,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $399,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-06 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-01-09 Listed — Unlock MLS