155 Chardonnay Dr · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,900,000

6 bd · 6.0 ba · 5,405 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2005 1.00 ac lot $352/sqft · 43% below area Est $2473k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HANDYMAN SPECIAL!! Southampton Pines Subdivision Large Hamptons-style post-modern single family home. Designed for luxury suburban living with resort-style features. Approximately 4000 square feet with multiple ensuite bedrooms {6 bedrooms and 7 bathrooms}, The home has an open-concept living and dining areas with a fireplace and high ceilings, Outside features Gunite in ground pool, attached 3 car garages with a large private yard on . 96 of an acre lot

Key facts

• Large private yard
• 1 acre lot
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• GUNITE IN GROUND POOL
• LARGE PRIVATE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association with annual fee; Association fee covers common area maintenance; Community playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3 total parking spaces; 3-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity available; PSEG electric service; Septic (above ground)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Non-waterfront; Property marked as fixer
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Tennis court(s); Private, secluded and cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included; Eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Two levels (multi-level bedroom layout possible)
• Bathrooms: 5 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Zoned cooling
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroom; Breakfast bar; Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Loft; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $1.90M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($86k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $1.90M).
• Recommended offer: $1.84M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $57k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $532k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.84M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,843,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.09%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,473,481
• List price: $1,900,000
• Delta: -23.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $146,401
• Equity at exit: $283,296

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $712,619
• Equity at exit: $164,277

Cash invested: $532,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,964
• Tax from tax record: −$1,863 /mo · $22,354/yr
• Insurance: −$792
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $7,132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,973

Max offer price $1,900,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $475,000
• Closing costs: $57,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
151 Chardonnay Dr East Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	4136	$25,000	$6.04	2d	1	0.07mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,900,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,900,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,900,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,900,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,900,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,900,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,900,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,900,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,900,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,900,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,900,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,900,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,900,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,900,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $1,900,000 Active 459-char remark
16. 2014-02-10
    historical
17. 2013-05-22
    listed $1,090,000
18. 2007-05-02
    soldstatus $2,500,000
19. 2004-11-15
    soldstatus $435,000
20. 2000-10-03
    soldstatus $155,000
21. 2000-09-25
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $22,354 · $1,863/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $27,232 · $2,269/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,878/yr (+$406/mo · 21.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$106,430
• − Property taxes: −$22,354
• − Insurance: −$9,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − Depreciation: −$55,273
• Taxable income: $58,444
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$14,026
• After-tax cash flow: $71,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1420.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $1,900,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-22 Listed $1,090,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $2,500,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $435,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $22,354 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.