44 Commonwealth Ave · Middletown, NY 10940

$298,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1960 5,000 sqft lot $253/sqft · 16% below area Est $354k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

EXCELLENT LOCATION!

Key facts

• New furnace
• New hot water heater
• Hardwood throughout

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• CERAMIC TILE IN THE KITCHEN
• HARDWOOD THROUGHOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Garage; Total parking for 3 vehicles; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Water connected; Sewer connected (public sewer); Phone connected; Electric service by Orange & Rockland
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories; Fixer condition
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; City lot; Cleared; Level lot; Partially wooded; Near golf course; Near public transit; Near shops; Near schools; Paved; Private; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two levels (rooms total: 6)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ducted heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Open kitchen; Full basement; Full attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-.
• Middletown City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Presidential Park Elementary School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,774 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 1,300 students, 76% FRL); Monhagen Middle School (math 16% / reading 39%, grade F, #576 of 729 statewide, top 79%, 817 students, 75% FRL); Middletown High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 2,523 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 279 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $107k; list at $299k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $236,094 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,968
• List price: $298,900
• Delta: -15.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Commonwealth Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-8%)	5mo	$300,000	$275	77
197 Highland Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,131 (-4%)	10mo	$268,000	$237	71
12 Eisenhower Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,150 (-2%)	9mo	$375,000	$326	70
143 N Beacon St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,264 (+7%)	2mo	$305,000	$241	69
127 Watkins Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,136 (-4%)	7mo	$280,000	$246	69
71 Commonwealth Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+14%)	2mo	$320,000	$238	68
13 Smith St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-5%)	6mo	$230,000	$205	66
98 Watkins Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+10%)	5mo	$345,000	$265	66
20 Columbia Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+4%)	10mo	$290,000	$235	61
3 Chappell Pkwy	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,016 (-14%)	8mo	$330,000	$325	55
299 Highland Ave Ext	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,284 (+9%)	7mo	$255,000	$199	46
80 Beattie Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-12%)	6mo	$200,000	$194	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-57,653
• Equity at exit: $44,567

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-18,356
• Equity at exit: $25,843

Cash invested: $83,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,502 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,567
• Tax from tax record: −$640 /mo · $7,683/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,952

Max offer price $236,094

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-186	-5% $-271	+0% $-356	+5% $-440	+10% $-525
Rent	-10% $-553	-5% $-454	+0% $-356	+5% $-257	+10% $-158
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-280	base $-356	+0.5pp $-433	+1.0pp $-512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,725
• Closing costs: $8,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
184 Highland Ave Middletown, NY	4.0	2.0	1486	$3,500	$2.36	25d	1	0.22mi
56 Wisner Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1144	$2,500	$2.19	25d	1	0.34mi
31 Liberty St Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	1090	$2,000	$1.83	15d	1	0.51mi
39 Crescent Pl Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1278	$2,500	$1.96	25d	1	0.57mi
11 Knapp Ave Apt 2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,500	$2.63	45d	1	0.61mi
90 Montgomery St Unit Upper Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	25d	1	0.64mi
118 W Main St Unit 1 Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1158	$2,350	$2.03	23d	1	0.67mi
126 W Main St Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	23d	1	0.68mi
126 W Main St Unit 2 Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	700	$2,200	$3.14	45d	1	0.68mi
128 W Main St Unit 2 Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	880	$2,500	$2.84	45d	1	0.68mi
31 Beattie Ave #2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	718	$2,000	$2.79	45d	1	0.75mi
28 North St #1 Middletown, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	45d	1	0.77mi
1 Dewitt St Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1127	$2,100	$1.86	45d	1	0.81mi
22 Sunnyside Ave Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	928	$1,800	$1.94	45d	1	0.82mi
63 Broad St Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1088	$2,700	$2.48	25d	1	0.82mi
2 E Main St #5 Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	15d	1	0.84mi
26 Mill St Unit 2 Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	45d	1	0.84mi
26 Mill St Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	25d	1	0.84mi
17 Academy Ave Unit 2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,850	$2.47	45d	1	0.86mi
225 Monhagen Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1466	$2,700	$1.84	15d	1	0.94mi
132 Prospect Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1240	$2,300	$1.85	45d	1	0.96mi
203 W Main St Unit 2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	784	$1,700	$2.17	45d	1	0.96mi
151 Tall Oaks Dr Middletown, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	920	$1,607	$1.75	15d	1	1.04mi
23 Wawayanda Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	1072	$2,150	$2.01	45d	1	1.04mi
3 Giada Ln Unit 2 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,300	$2.42	45d	1	1.05mi
1 Giada Ln #5 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,300	$2.42	45d	1	1.06mi
102 Wawayanda Ave Unit 1 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,950	$2.60	45d	1	1.33mi
700 Stratford Ln Middletown, NY	2.0	1.5	800	$2,200	$2.75	15d	1	1.35mi
38 Richmond Pl Unit 1B Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,400	$2.53	15d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $298,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $298,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $298,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $298,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $298,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $298,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $298,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $298,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $298,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $298,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $298,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $298,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $298,900 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $298,900 Active 469-char remark
19. 1998-11-10
    soldstatus $107,000
20. 1998-11-02
    soldstatus $81,500 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    EXCELLENT LOCATION!

21. 1998-04-16
    historical 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    EXCELLENT LOCATION!

22. 1998-04-16
    price $87,500 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    EXCELLENT LOCATION!

23. 1998-01-08
    listed $81,500 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    EXCELLENT LOCATION!

24. 1994-10-27
    soldstatus $117,000
25. 1992-03-18
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,683 · $640/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,683 · $640/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,743
• − Property taxes: −$7,683
• − Insurance: −$1,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,402
• − Management: −$2,402
• − Depreciation: −$8,695
• Taxable loss: −$9,394
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,255
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3619320
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $54,612
• Composite: 41.52/100
• National rank: #3453
• State rank: #411 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 68,033
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+139.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $298,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 1998-11-02 Sold (MLS) $81,500 HGMLS
• 1998-04-16 Price Changed $87,500 HGMLS
• 1998-04-16 Delisted — HGMLS
• 1998-01-08 Listed $81,500 HGMLS
• 1994-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 1992-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,683 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.