209 El Reposo Pl · Laguna Beach, FL 32413

$599,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1979 7,500 sqft lot $252/sqft · at area comps Est $625k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Prime Laguna Beach Opportunity -- Deeded Beach Access + Gulf View Potential A deep 50' x 150' lot with deeded beach access, vacation-rental zoning, duplex potential, and Gulf-view upside -- all in one of Laguna Beach's most desirable, least commercialized beach pockets. Located just one block from the sand and near the iconic Thomas Donut & Snack Shop, this property offers exceptional flexibility for renovation, rental income, or redevelopment. The existing 4-bedroom, 3-bath structure has a versatile layout, including a 2-bedroom, 1-bath upstairs unit, a 1-bedroom, 1-bath downstairs unit with kitchen, plus an additional efficiency-style space. The property may offer strong potentia

Key facts

• Deeded beach access
• Beachside location
• Gulf view potential

Tags

• DEEDED BEACH ACCESS
• GULF VIEW POTENTIAL
• VACATION RENTAL ZONING
• DUPLEX POTENTIAL
• BEACHSIDE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Multifamily units furnished: None
• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported
• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed in the community

Exterior

• Home design: Property sits on a 0.17-acre lot
• Construction: Mobile dimensions reported in feet
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 150 feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on first and second floors
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (located on first and second floors)
• Interior features: Total of 6 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($697/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $490k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $490k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 0.9% in Laguna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#283 in FL, #4,522 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1272 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,897/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 531% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $325k; list at $599k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $489,678 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $624,798
• List price: $599,000
• Delta: -4.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19102 Front Beach Rd	0.15mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,351 (-1%)	6mo	$775,000	$330	75
318 Placido Pl	0.17mi	5/4.5 (+1)	2,304 (-3%)	2mo	$1,112,500	$483	74
204 S Wells St	0.36mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,356 (-1%)	4mo	$590,000	$250	74
262 N Wells St	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,336 (-2%)	6mo	$655,000	$280	68
18916 Front Beach Rd	0.23mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,524 (+6%)	10mo	$1,500,000	$594	64
317 Toledo Pl	0.30mi	4/4.0	2,562 (+8%)	8mo	$1,266,375	$494	62
227 Sands St	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,248 (-6%)	6mo	$1,200,000	$534	55
290 N N Wells Street St	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,496 (+5%)	14mo	$725,000	$290	54
211 Malaga Pl	0.52mi	4/4.5	2,597 (+9%)	8mo	$1,400,000	$539	48
17799 Front Beach Rd	0.57mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,080 (-12%)	2mo	$2,630,000	$1,264	46
217 Sands St	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,081 (-12%)	4mo	$1,140,000	$548	46
19974 Front Beach Rd	0.75mi	4/4.0	2,700 (+14%)	13mo	$1,260,000	$467	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-105,419
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-134,116
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32413

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 1272
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$420 /mo · $5,035/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,028
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,823

Max offer price $599,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $228	+0% $58	+5% $-111	+10% $-281
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-135	+0% $58	+5% $251	+10% $445
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $210	base $58	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
223 E Lakeshore Dr Unit 1511640P Panama City Beach, FL	4.0	3.5	2594	$7,599	$2.93	22d	1	0.14mi
238 Oleander Dr Unit 1462121P Panama City, FL	4.0	4.0	1732	$4,298	$2.48	14d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $599,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $599,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $599,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $599,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $599,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $599,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $599,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $599,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $599,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $599,000 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,000 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $599,000 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $599,000 Active 33 DOM
19. 2026-04-27
    listed $599,000 Active 1453-char remark
20. 2021-12-14
    historical
21. 2021-12-14
    historical
22. 2021-10-20
    soldstatus $325,000
23. 2006-08-16
    soldstatus $325,000
24. 2006-08-09
    soldstatus $350,000
25. 2006-05-05
    listed $399,900
26. 2005-06-15
    listed $530,000
27. 2004-12-21
    listed $550,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,035 · $420/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,035 · $420/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$5,035
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,701
• − Management: −$4,701
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$9,649
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,316
• After-tax cash flow: $3,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Laguna Beach

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #4522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laguna Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,453
• Household income: $80,039
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 531.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.97%
• Current HPI: 354.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+8.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $599,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-09 Sold (MLS) $350,000 CPARMLS
• 2006-05-05 Listed $399,900 CPARMLS
• 2005-06-15 Listed $530,000 CPARMLS
• 2004-12-21 Listed $550,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,035 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.