308 Coast St · Willits, CA 95490

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 251 Days on market

6,125 sqft lot Est $378k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Original old farmhouse in need of work. 3 bed 2 bath on the west side of Willits. Short walk to downtown restaurants and stores. property has a well in addition to city water.

Key facts

• 6,125 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 251 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.8% in Willits — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#377 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Willits Unified (town): math 9% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #486 of 517 in CA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Brookside Elementary (363 students, 61% FRL); Baechtel Grove Middle (math 5% / reading 17%, grade F, #472 of 498 statewide, top 95%, 270 students, 59% FRL); Willits High (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 415 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $215k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.07%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $378,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
440 North St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+4%)	11mo	$395,000	$252	74
138 Mill Creek Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-2%)	10mo	$430,000	$291	62
144 State St	0.34mi	3/3.0	1,572 (+5%)	13mo	$575,000	$366	61
134 Mill Creek Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+6%)	4mo	$390,000	$246	61
1242 Poplar Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-4%)	2mo	$378,000	$262	59
92 Franklin Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+7%)	14mo	$369,000	$231	59
80 Fort Bragg Rd	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-12%)	3mo	$235,000	$178	57
355 N Main St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,482 (-1%)	5mo	$112,673	$76	57
540 W Mendocino Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,412 (-6%)	14mo	$320,000	$227	54
405 W Mendocino Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-10%)	21mo	$360,000	$265	52
309 E Valley St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,285 (-14%)	4mo	$385,500	$300	50
257 Pine St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,287 (-14%)	15mo	$120,000	$93	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-28,209
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-15,986
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95490

• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,921/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,849

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $165	+0% $104	+5% $43	+10% $-18
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $26	+0% $104	+5% $182	+10% $260
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $159	base $104	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-02-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-18
   price $215,000
3. 2025-06-21
   listed $240,000 Active
4. 2017-09-16
   listed $178,000
5. 2017-04-13
   soldstatus $106,000 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Original old farmhouse in need of work. 3 bed 2 bath on the west side of Willits. Short walk to downtown restaurants and stores. property has a well in addition to city water.

6. 2017-04-13
   soldstatus $275,000

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Original old farmhouse in need of work. 3 bed 2 bath on the west side of Willits. Short walk to downtown restaurants and stores. property has a well in addition to city water.

7. 2016-08-03
   listed $149,000 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Original old farmhouse in need of work. 3 bed 2 bath on the west side of Willits. Short walk to downtown restaurants and stores. property has a well in addition to city water.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,921 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,921 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,921
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,333
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$560
• After-tax cash flow: $1,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willits Unified
• NCES district ID: 0642560
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,494
• Composite: 14.14/100
• National rank: #9455
• State rank: #486 of 517 in CA

Livability — Willits

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #377
• US rank: #12923

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willits, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,627

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 18% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -233.81%
• Current HPI: 155.0788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+44.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Pending — BAREIS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $215,000 BAREIS
• 2025-06-21 Listed $240,000 BAREIS
• 2017-09-16 Listed $178,000 BAREIS
• 2017-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-13 Sold (MLS) $106,000 BAREIS
• 2016-08-03 Listed $149,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,921 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.