2822 NE 16th Dr · Gainesville, FL 32609

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1964 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath gem—perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize without sacrificing comfort! Step inside to find a refreshed interior with modern touches throughout, offering a warm and inviting living space ready for you to move right in. The functional layout includes a spacious living area, an updated kitchen, and well-sized bedrooms designed for everyday living, 2025 HVAC and double-paned windows and sliding glass doors add to the updates. Enjoy the outdoors in your fully fenced backyard—ideal for pets, entertaining, or simply relaxing in your own private space. Additional features include a convenient 1-car carport and a large storage/laundry room, providing plenty of extra space for organization and household needs. Best of all, there are NO HOA fees, giving you more freedom and affordability. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a charming, low-maintenance home that checks all the boxes!

Key facts

• 1-car carport
• No hoa fees
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• 1-CAR CARPORT
• LARGE STORAGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• NO HOA FEES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,901/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 1037% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,107 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.35%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,487
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $9,740
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32609

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,009/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,644

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $316	-5% $259	+0% $203	+5% $146	+10% $90
Rent	-10% $53	-5% $128	+0% $203	+5% $278	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $303	-0.5pp $254	base $203	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $199,900 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-05-13
   status Active 984-char remark

   Show marketing remark (984 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath gem—perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize without sacrificing comfort! Step inside to find a refreshed interior with modern touches throughout, offering a warm and inviting living space ready for you to move right in. The functional layout includes a spacious living area, an updated kitchen, and well-sized bedrooms designed for everyday living, 2025 HVAC and double-paned windows and sliding glass doors add to the updates. Enjoy the outdoors in your fully fenced backyard—ideal for pets, entertaining, or simply relaxing in your own private space. Additional features include a convenient 1-car carport and a large storage/laundry room, providing plenty of extra space for organization and household needs. Best of all, there are NO HOA fees, giving you more freedom and affordability. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a charming, low-maintenance home that checks all the boxes!

4. 2026-04-29
   status Pending 984-char remark

   Show marketing remark (984 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath gem—perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize without sacrificing comfort! Step inside to find a refreshed interior with modern touches throughout, offering a warm and inviting living space ready for you to move right in. The functional layout includes a spacious living area, an updated kitchen, and well-sized bedrooms designed for everyday living, 2025 HVAC and double-paned windows and sliding glass doors add to the updates. Enjoy the outdoors in your fully fenced backyard—ideal for pets, entertaining, or simply relaxing in your own private space. Additional features include a convenient 1-car carport and a large storage/laundry room, providing plenty of extra space for organization and household needs. Best of all, there are NO HOA fees, giving you more freedom and affordability. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a charming, low-maintenance home that checks all the boxes!

5. 2026-04-12
   listed $199,900 Active 984-char remark

   Show marketing remark (984 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath gem—perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize without sacrificing comfort! Step inside to find a refreshed interior with modern touches throughout, offering a warm and inviting living space ready for you to move right in. The functional layout includes a spacious living area, an updated kitchen, and well-sized bedrooms designed for everyday living, 2025 HVAC and double-paned windows and sliding glass doors add to the updates. Enjoy the outdoors in your fully fenced backyard—ideal for pets, entertaining, or simply relaxing in your own private space. Additional features include a convenient 1-car carport and a large storage/laundry room, providing plenty of extra space for organization and household needs. Best of all, there are NO HOA fees, giving you more freedom and affordability. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a charming, low-maintenance home that checks all the boxes!

6. 2019-09-04
   soldstatus $140,000
7. 2019-08-30
   soldstatus $140,000 602-char remark

   Show marketing remark (602 chars)

   MOVE RIGHT IN! All block and Brick 3 bedroom/ 1 and 1/2 bath ranch style home features all tile flooring throughout. All new cabinets in kitchen and baths with new plumbing and lighting fixtures throughout. Fresh paint on exterior and interior with new paneled doors throughout. Kitchen features craftsman style white cabinetry with stainless smooth top range and refrigerator. Welcoming front covered porch and carport with chain link fenced back yard feature gorgeous oak trees for shade from the heat. Large rear laundry room/workshop area right off the back of the house. This home is a REAL JEWEL!

8. 2019-07-02
   listed $147,500 602-char remark

   Show marketing remark (602 chars)

   MOVE RIGHT IN! All block and Brick 3 bedroom/ 1 and 1/2 bath ranch style home features all tile flooring throughout. All new cabinets in kitchen and baths with new plumbing and lighting fixtures throughout. Fresh paint on exterior and interior with new paneled doors throughout. Kitchen features craftsman style white cabinetry with stainless smooth top range and refrigerator. Welcoming front covered porch and carport with chain link fenced back yard feature gorgeous oak trees for shade from the heat. Large rear laundry room/workshop area right off the back of the house. This home is a REAL JEWEL!

9. 2019-05-15
   soldstatus $60,000
10. 2003-03-31
    soldstatus $75,000
11. 1988-08-01
    soldstatus $14,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,009 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,009 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,009
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$859
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$206
• After-tax cash flow: $2,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,752
• Household income: $49,406
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1037.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.25%
• Current HPI: 304.1951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1307.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-02 Listed $147,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1988-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,009 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.