15423 Park Perch Pl · Magnolia, TX 77354

$274,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Land · 115 Days on market

Built 2026 4,953 sqft lot $188/sqft · 6% below area Est $293k · 6% under $154/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Darlington is a single-family plan that offers three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, a large central great room, a kitchen that includes an island with a serving bar, a rear covered patio, optional cabinets in the utility room, and an attached two-car garage.

Key facts

• Central great room
• Rear covered patio
• Kitchen island

Tags

• CENTRAL GREAT ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• REAR COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-354/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $220,796 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,530
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -6.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $141,997
• Equity at exit: $247,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $409,021
• Equity at exit: $534,070

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,245

Max offer price $269,690

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	1d	40	0.61mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	43d	1	0.79mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	24d	1	0.82mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	43d	1	0.86mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	24d	1	1.24mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	5d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $274,900 Pending 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,900 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,900 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,900 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $274,900 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,900 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,900 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-02-22
    listed $290,900 Active 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    The Darlington is a single-family plan that offers three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, a large central great room, a kitchen that includes an island with a serving bar, a rear covered patio, optional cabinets in the utility room, and an attached two-car garage.

15. 2026-02-07
    listed $290,900 Active 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    The Darlington is a single-family plan that offers three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, a large central great room, a kitchen that includes an island with a serving bar, a rear covered patio, and an attached two-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,031 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,267/yr (+$356/mo · 558.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,120
• − Management: −$2,120
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$5,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,230
• After-tax cash flow: $876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-22 Listed $290,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $290,900 Zillow

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $764 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.