6309 J F Douglas Dr · Gulf Hills, MS 39564

$253,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1972 9,147 sqft lot Est $359k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Expansive family home in an established neighborhood just minutes from downtown Ocean Springs! With 2,152sf of living space, the home boasts bonus rooms and multi-functional spaces that include a formal living room, dining room, den, AND a sun room. Each room comes with plenty of storage including walk ins for the den, dining, pantry, and laundry room - all of quality size. Well taken care of, the home features upgraded energy efficient windows, all new LED lighting, gas appliances, and modern finishes while keeping the original character of the home. The den impresses with beamed ceilings and a fully bricked fireplace wall featuring custom built ins. Enjoy the comfort of your family entert

Key facts

• Bonus rooms
• Sun room
• Dining room

Tags

• BONUS ROOMS
• MULTI-FUNCTIONAL SPACES
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• DEN
• SUN ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Near entertainment

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Vinyl and brick exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: public records)
• Exterior features: Porch and side porch; Private backyard; Back yard fencing; Shed(s) and workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Double pane, ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Wood-burning fireplace in den
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $253k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.5% in Gulf Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,019 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.35%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,384
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12713 Cambridge Blvd Blvd	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,174 (+1%)	15mo	$314,900	$145	67
6505 Lancaster Blvd	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,997 (-7%)	3mo	$199,900	$100	65
6009 Switzer Cv	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,386 (+11%)	0mo	$499,999	$210	59
5904 Moreton Pl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,925 (-10%)	9mo	$599,900	$312	59
6021 Cardona Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,925 (-10%)	1mo	$334,730	$174	54
12704 Cambridge Blvd	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,848 (-14%)	1mo	$239,000	$129	53
11805 Moss Creek Ct	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,314 (+8%)	0mo	$386,071	$167	53
5716 Fiddlers Pointe	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,986 (-8%)	1mo	$355,885	$179	51
11645 Brookstone Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,253 (+5%)	10mo	$346,000	$154	49
6991 Osprey Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,265 (+5%)	6mo	$326,000	$144	48
6345 Langland Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,960 (-9%)	4mo	$399,711	$204	48
6959 Osprey Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,936 (-10%)	6mo	$323,000	$167	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-28,710
• Equity at exit: $37,723

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-20,046
• Equity at exit: $21,875

Cash invested: $70,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,410 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,583/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,085

Max offer price $253,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $328	+0% $257	+5% $185	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $66	-5% $161	+0% $257	+5% $352	+10% $447
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $321	base $257	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,250
• Closing costs: $7,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11404 Harrison Ct Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,950	$1.41	22d	1	0.87mi
5809 Washington Ave Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	3000	$2,000	$0.67	14d	1	0.88mi
6428 Poco Rd Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,500	$1.26	44d	1	1.00mi
107 Surgeres Pl Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.5	2830	$3,400	$1.20	45d	1	1.05mi
6721 Washington Ave Ocean Springs, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$1,696	$1.56	14d	12	1.05mi
1508 Government St Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	3.0	1557	$1,950	$1.25	22d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $253,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-05
   listed $253,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,583 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,583 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,172
• − Property taxes: −$2,583
• − Insurance: −$1,265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,314
• − Management: −$2,314
• − Depreciation: −$7,360
• Taxable loss: −$1,085
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$260
• After-tax cash flow: $3,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulf Hills

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #7310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Hills, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $253,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+24.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,583 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.