3891 Saddlecrest Dr · Jonesboro, AR 72404

$194,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,537 sqft · Land · 105 Days on market

7,840 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * New Price Alert * * Discover this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring a unique floor plan designed for comfort and style! The large eat-in kitchen, complete with a spacious pantry, is perfect for family meals and gatherings. The huge living room and open floor plan provide plenty of space for entertaining. Enjoy the privacy of a split-bedroom layout, highlighted by a massive primary suite with a roomy walk-in closet. The oversized backyard offers endless opportunities for family fun and outdoor activities, while the spacious laundry room adds convenience. Don't miss outschedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Split-bedroom layout
• Unique floor plan

Tags

• UNIQUE FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($563/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.4% in Jonesboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#145 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Nettleton School District (urban): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #199 of 238 in AR (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 309 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,431 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.03%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-32,492
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-39,726
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72404

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,924/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3817 Keeneland Dr Jonesboro, AR	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,525	$1.13	43d	1	0.16mi
3717 Glitterman Dr Jonesboro, AR	4.0	2.0	1544	$1,595	$1.03	43d	1	0.19mi
3809 Travers Ln Jonesboro, AR	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,550	$1.25	43d	1	0.23mi
3840 Travers Ln Jonesboro, AR	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,525	$1.23	43d	1	0.24mi
3622 Hargis Dr Jonesboro, AR	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,495	$1.31	43d	1	0.28mi
4619 Jeri Cv Jonesboro, AR	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,495	$1.06	43d	1	0.72mi
3719 Stadium Blvd Unit E20 Jonesboro, AR	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,294	$0.96	43d	1	0.81mi
6 Willow Creek Ln Jonesboro, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,458	$1.58	43d	24	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2025-03-31
   soldstatus $190,000

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   * * New Price Alert * * Discover this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring a unique floor plan designed for comfort and style! The large eat-in kitchen, complete with a spacious pantry, is perfect for family meals and gatherings. The huge living room and open floor plan provide plenty of space for entertaining. Enjoy the privacy of a split-bedroom layout, highlighted by a massive primary suite with a roomy walk-in closet. The oversized backyard offers endless opportunities for family fun and outdoor activities, while the spacious laundry room adds convenience. Don't miss outschedule your showing today!

2. 2025-03-31
   soldstatus $190,000 Closed 620-char remark

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   * * New Price Alert * * Discover this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring a unique floor plan designed for comfort and style! The large eat-in kitchen, complete with a spacious pantry, is perfect for family meals and gatherings. The huge living room and open floor plan provide plenty of space for entertaining. Enjoy the privacy of a split-bedroom layout, highlighted by a massive primary suite with a roomy walk-in closet. The oversized backyard offers endless opportunities for family fun and outdoor activities, while the spacious laundry room adds convenience. Don't miss outschedule your showing today!

3. 2025-03-25
   historical 620-char remark

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   * * New Price Alert * * Discover this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring a unique floor plan designed for comfort and style! The large eat-in kitchen, complete with a spacious pantry, is perfect for family meals and gatherings. The huge living room and open floor plan provide plenty of space for entertaining. Enjoy the privacy of a split-bedroom layout, highlighted by a massive primary suite with a roomy walk-in closet. The oversized backyard offers endless opportunities for family fun and outdoor activities, while the spacious laundry room adds convenience. Don't miss outschedule your showing today!

4. 2025-03-24
   status Pending
5. 2025-03-05
   historical Active Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   * * New Price Alert * * Discover this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring a unique floor plan designed for comfort and style! The large eat-in kitchen, complete with a spacious pantry, is perfect for family meals and gatherings. The huge living room and open floor plan provide plenty of space for entertaining. Enjoy the privacy of a split-bedroom layout, highlighted by a massive primary suite with a roomy walk-in closet. The oversized backyard offers endless opportunities for family fun and outdoor activities, while the spacious laundry room adds convenience. Don't miss outschedule your showing today!

6. 2025-03-05
   historical Active Under Contract 620-char remark

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   * * New Price Alert * * Discover this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring a unique floor plan designed for comfort and style! The large eat-in kitchen, complete with a spacious pantry, is perfect for family meals and gatherings. The huge living room and open floor plan provide plenty of space for entertaining. Enjoy the privacy of a split-bedroom layout, highlighted by a massive primary suite with a roomy walk-in closet. The oversized backyard offers endless opportunities for family fun and outdoor activities, while the spacious laundry room adds convenience. Don't miss outschedule your showing today!

7. 2025-02-14
   price $192,500 620-char remark

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   * * New Price Alert * * Discover this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring a unique floor plan designed for comfort and style! The large eat-in kitchen, complete with a spacious pantry, is perfect for family meals and gatherings. The huge living room and open floor plan provide plenty of space for entertaining. Enjoy the privacy of a split-bedroom layout, highlighted by a massive primary suite with a roomy walk-in closet. The oversized backyard offers endless opportunities for family fun and outdoor activities, while the spacious laundry room adds convenience. Don't miss outschedule your showing today!

8. 2025-01-05
   price $194,900
9. 2025-01-04
   price $194,900 620-char remark

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   * * New Price Alert * * Discover this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring a unique floor plan designed for comfort and style! The large eat-in kitchen, complete with a spacious pantry, is perfect for family meals and gatherings. The huge living room and open floor plan provide plenty of space for entertaining. Enjoy the privacy of a split-bedroom layout, highlighted by a massive primary suite with a roomy walk-in closet. The oversized backyard offers endless opportunities for family fun and outdoor activities, while the spacious laundry room adds convenience. Don't miss outschedule your showing today!

10. 2024-12-09
    listed $199,900 Active
11. 2024-12-07
    listed $199,900 Active 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    * * New Price Alert * * Discover this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring a unique floor plan designed for comfort and style! The large eat-in kitchen, complete with a spacious pantry, is perfect for family meals and gatherings. The huge living room and open floor plan provide plenty of space for entertaining. Enjoy the privacy of a split-bedroom layout, highlighted by a massive primary suite with a roomy walk-in closet. The oversized backyard offers endless opportunities for family fun and outdoor activities, while the spacious laundry room adds convenience. Don't miss outschedule your showing today!

12. 2022-05-19
    price $1,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$2,924
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$2,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$648
• After-tax cash flow: $1,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nettleton School District
• NCES district ID: 0510440
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $39,754
• Composite: 19.0/100
• National rank: #8846
• State rank: #199 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jonesboro

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #12692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jonesboro, AR
• County: Craighead County · 97,185 people
• City population: 91,245
• Metro: Jonesboro, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,968
• Household income: $70,269
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (Craighead County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,235 people
• By 2030: 131,338 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 149,862 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 168,034 · +37.5%
• By 2075: 208,094 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 233,251 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 18% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Craighead

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.1% · R 67.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+35.4 2016: R+35.2 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.22%
• Current HPI: 208.3772
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Jonesboro, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+14515.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-31 Sold (MLS) $190,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-03-31 Sold (MLS) $190,000 EARA
• 2025-03-25 Delisted — NEABOR MLS
• 2025-03-24 Pending — EARA
• 2025-03-05 Contingent — EARA
• 2025-03-05 Contingent — NEABOR MLS
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $192,500 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-01-05 Price Changed $194,900 EARA
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $194,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2024-12-09 Listed $199,900 EARA
• 2024-12-07 Listed $199,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2022-05-19 Price Changed $1,300 RENT.