204 S 2nd St · Oronogo, MO 64855

$137,250

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,028 sqft · Other · 18 Days on market

Built 1920

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Auth to show.

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• Side deck
• Mature trees

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• MATURE TREES
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• SIDE DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Property built as a single-family residence
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Side porch; Wood and other fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#156 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Webb City R-VII (suburban): math 53% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #21 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harry S. Truman Elem. (math 79% / reading 77%, grade A, #9 of 1,115 statewide, top 1%, 277 students, 41% FRL); Webb City Middle (math 53% / reading 55%, grade B-, #46 of 391 statewide, top 12%, 696 students, 47% FRL); Webb City High (math 30% / reading 59%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 1,349 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($948 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,191 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.76%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $100,743
• Equity at exit: $123,646

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.19×
• Total profit: $276,142
• Equity at exit: $266,647

Cash invested: $38,430 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64855

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,602 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$720
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $958/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,085

Max offer price $137,250

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $486	-5% $447	+0% $409	+5% $370	+10% $331
Rent	-10% $282	-5% $345	+0% $409	+5% $472	+10% $535
Rate	-1.0pp $478	-0.5pp $444	base $409	+0.5pp $373	+1.0pp $337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,312
• Closing costs: $4,118
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
606 Sarah Ct Oronogo, MO	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,700	$1.17	22d	1	1.03mi
745 Short Leaf Ln Oronogo, MO	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,550	$1.09	22d	1	1.04mi
1101 Downy Dr Oronogo, MO	4.0	2.0	1423	$1,749	$1.23	22d	1	1.22mi
609 Short Leaf Ln Oronogo, MO	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,400	$0.97	22d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $137,250 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $137,250 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,250 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,250 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,250 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,250 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,250 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,250 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $137,250 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $137,250 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $137,250 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,250 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    remarks 378-char remark
14. 2026-06-05
    listing id $137,250 Active 1 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    remarks 376-char remark
16. 2026-06-03
    listed $137,250 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $958 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$373/yr (+$31/mo · 38.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,688
• − Property taxes: −$958
• − Insurance: −$686
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − Depreciation: −$3,993
• Taxable income: $2,821
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$677
• After-tax cash flow: $4,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webb City R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2931500
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,022
• Composite: 47.68/100
• National rank: #2244
• State rank: #21 of 324 in MO

Livability — Oronogo

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #8706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oronogo, MO
• City population: 16,360
• Population (ZIP): 2,629

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,033 people
• By 2030: 120,091 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 119,297 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 117,705 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 110,402 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 99,719 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · China

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 25.9% · R 72.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.47%
• Current HPI: 254.495
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+20.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $137,250 SOMO
• 2019-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-02 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2019-05-21 Listed $113,850 OGAR
• 2006-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $958 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.