6504 Cabin Ridge Rd · Hurlock, MD 21643

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2006 1.25 ac lot $101/sqft · 44% below area Est $293k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare find- doublewide homes allowed. Survey, Health Dept. Status report and Covenants and Restrictions on file. Survey reflects 42,456 +/- sf. Lot may be located in a Forest Protection Area.

Key facts

• Ideal location
• Spacious acreage
• Peaceful setting

Tags

• SPACIOUS ACREAGE
• SINGLE STORY CONVENIENCE
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• IDEAL LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electric hot water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Outside city limits
• Construction: Estimated year built; Above-grade finished living space (estimated 1,625)
• Exterior features: Personal pool; Other above-grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on main level (Master bedroom, Bedroom 2, Bedroom 1)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane (leased) heating fuel; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Estimated living area; Living room; Dining room; Foyer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.7% in Hurlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#332 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Warwick Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #297 of 860 statewide, top 38%, 347 students, 100% FRL); North Dorchester Middle School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #147 of 225 statewide, top 68%, 415 students, 100% FRL); North Dorchester High School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #100 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 572 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Dorchester County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.37%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,873
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -31.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $151,540
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.37×
• Total profit: $412,680
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21643

• Home prices YoY: 15.5%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,080/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,652

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4319 Dolby Farm Rd Hurlock, MD	4.0	2.0	1960	$2,500	$1.28	43d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $199,900 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $199,900 Active 1556-char remark
3. 2007-07-26
   soldstatus $205,500
4. 2007-05-05
   historical
5. 2006-10-11
   listed
6. 2004-09-13
   soldstatus $42,000
7. 2004-09-09
   soldstatus $42,000

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Rare find- doublewide homes allowed. Survey, Health Dept. Status report and Covenants and Restrictions on file. Survey reflects 42,456 +/- sf. Lot may be located in a Forest Protection Area.

8. 2004-08-19
   historical

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Rare find- doublewide homes allowed. Survey, Health Dept. Status report and Covenants and Restrictions on file. Survey reflects 42,456 +/- sf. Lot may be located in a Forest Protection Area.

9. 2004-08-10
   listed $40,000

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Rare find- doublewide homes allowed. Survey, Health Dept. Status report and Covenants and Restrictions on file. Survey reflects 42,456 +/- sf. Lot may be located in a Forest Protection Area.

10. 2002-03-08
    historical
11. 2001-03-26
    listed
12. 1999-02-06
    historical
13. 1998-02-06
    listed
14. 1994-08-24
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,080 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,129 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$50/yr (+$4/mo · 2.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,080
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $5,108
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,226
• After-tax cash flow: $6,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dorchester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400300
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,767
• Composite: 14.65/100
• National rank: #9404
• State rank: #23 of 24 in MD

Livability — Hurlock

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #17536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,176

Population outlook (Dorchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,699 people
• By 2030: 31,054 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,712 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 28,618 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 28,436 · -10.3%
• By 2100: 28,937 · -8.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 28% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Dorchester

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.6% · R 56.1% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+16.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.36%
• Current HPI: 390.419
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+899.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $205,500 Public Records
• 2007-05-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-10-11 Listed — MRIS
• 2004-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-09 Sold (MLS) $42,000 MRIS
• 2004-08-19 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-08-10 Listed $40,000 MRIS
• 2002-03-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-03-26 Listed — MRIS
• 1999-02-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-02-06 Listed — MRIS
• 1994-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,080 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.