4826 Willis Dr · Sherwood Shores, TX 73439

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Manufactured public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2001 1.28 ac lot Est $356k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 4 bedroom Solitaire home, with 2 living areas! The home has an open floor plan, with a built-on 2 car garage, a large enclosed back patio that faces the Corps of Engineer's land at Lake Texoma. This property is over one acre with mature trees, and located less than a half mile from the West Buncombe Creek Recreation area of Lake Texoma.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Built-on garage
• Enclosed back patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BUILT-ON GARAGE
• ENCLOSED BACK PATIO
• MATURE TREES
• CORPS OF ENGINEER'S LAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing side; 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors; No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available (rural); Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces west; Entry on main level
• Construction: HardiPlank siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Built according to public records; Crawlspace / permanent foundation with tie-downs
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Sprinkler / irrigation; Mature trees; Additional land available; Less than 1 mile to Texoma Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range / Stove; Refrigerator; Disposal; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; Laminate countertops; Electric range connection; Vinyl and insulated windows; Insulated doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($291/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.8% in Sherwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,519 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Kingston (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #70 of 270 in OK (top 26%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $279k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,326 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.37%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $356,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15917 Tee Time Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,980 (-12%)	2mo	$315,000	$159	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $153,396
• Equity at exit: $251,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.76×
• Total profit: $450,322
• Equity at exit: $542,036

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73439

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,644/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,173

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,000 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $279,000
18. 2026-02-22
    listed $319,000 Active
19. 2026-02-19
    historical
20. 2025-08-19
    listed $319,000 Active
21. 2019-06-20
    historical
22. 2019-06-14
    listed $205,000
23. 2010-11-04
    soldstatus $180,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,644 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,106 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,462/yr (+$288/mo · 210.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$1,644
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,115
• − Management: −$2,115
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$4,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $1,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingston
• NCES district ID: 4016590
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,655
• Composite: 24.88/100
• National rank: #7585
• State rank: #70 of 270 in OK

Livability — Sherwood Shores

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1519
• US rank: #25941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,011

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 18,038 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 19,513 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 21,283 · +22.3%
• By 2075: 27,884 · +60.2%
• By 2100: 35,435 · +103.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 16% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.4) · D 17.7% · R 81.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -63.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.4 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.96%
• Current HPI: 246.2253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+55.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $279,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-02-22 Listed $319,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-02-19 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-08-19 Listed $319,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2019-06-20 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2019-06-14 Listed $205,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2010-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,644 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.