128 Winding Hill Rd · Tobyhanna, PA 18350

$500,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1971 0.34 ac lot $410/sqft · 50% above area Est $587k · 15% under $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 128 Winding Way in Pocono Pines. This beautifully maintained ranch style home with a finished lower level offers the kind of space and warmth that make mountain living so enjoyable. As you step inside you are greeted by a spacious living room with hardwood floors, a bay window that brings in great natural light, and a large wood burning fireplace that anchors the room. There is plenty of seating, room for a TV setup and an easy flow into the recently updated kitchen. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, generous cabinet space and a window over the sink that overlooks the backyard. A peninsula and dedicated coffee station provide even more functionality. The kitchen opens directly to the dining area which fits a table for six and includes sliding glass doors leading out to the back deck. The hallway off the main living area brings you to a full bathroom with a granite vanity, floor to ceiling storage, a walk in shower and heated floors. This level includes three bedrooms, each with hardwood flooring. The Moose Lodge bedroom has a queen bed and its own closet with a safe. The Bear Cave features a king bed and additional closet space. The largest bedroom offers two full size beds and its own private half bathroom with an updated vanity. There is also an attached garage conveniently accessible from this level. Downstairs you will find a fully finished lower level with luxury vinyl plank flooring, additional storage closets and a recently renovated full bathroom with dual sinks, heated floors and a tub shower combination. This level also includes a laundry area, an extra refrigerator and a small secondary kitchen setup with space for a microwave if desired. The lower level opens into a fantastic recreation area that makes this home perfect for hosting and relaxing. There is a pool table, arcade games, a bar, darts and a large seating area with a comfy L shaped couch for movie nights or game days. A fourth sleeping area, known as the Owl's Nest, offers a sleeper sofa, twin over full bunk beds and a fun tent hangout spot. This room also provides walkout access to the backyard. Outside, the property features a spacious deck with plenty of seating, a Blackstone grill and a large fire pit area that creates an ideal setting for evening gatherings. Whether you are looking for a full time residence, vacation home or investment property, this home offers an incredible combination of comfort, functionality and classic Pocono charm.

Key facts

• Sliding glass doors
• Heated floors
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DEDICATED COFFEE STATION
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• HEATED FLOORS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (52.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (46.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (52.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $330k; list at $500k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $235,891 (52.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.81%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $587,273
• List price: $500,000
• Delta: -14.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5598 Woodland Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	16mo	$335,000	$249	56
151 Winding Hill Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+14%)	12mo	$450,000	$323	54
2299 Hillcrest Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-6%)	20mo	$440,000	$382	53
5493 Woodland Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+10%)	15mo	$344,900	$257	52
261 Aspen Rd	0.39mi	3/3.0	1,350 (+11%)	12mo	$476,250	$353	52
245 Aspen Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+9%)	20mo	$485,000	$365	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-176,111
• Equity at exit: $74,552

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.97×
• Total profit: $-275,429
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18350

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,671 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$705 /mo · $8,457/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-1,495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,563

Max offer price $235,891

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $500,000 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $500,000 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $500,000 Active 199 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $500,000 Active 198 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $500,000 Active 197 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $500,000 Active 196 DOM
7. 2025-10-17
   listed $500,000 Active 2504-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2504 chars)

   Welcome to 128 Winding Way in Pocono Pines. This beautifully maintained ranch style home with a finished lower level offers the kind of space and warmth that make mountain living so enjoyable. As you step inside you are greeted by a spacious living room with hardwood floors, a bay window that brings in great natural light, and a large wood burning fireplace that anchors the room. There is plenty of seating, room for a TV setup and an easy flow into the recently updated kitchen. The kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, generous cabinet space and a window over the sink that overlooks the backyard. A peninsula and dedicated coffee station provide even more functionality. The kitchen opens directly to the dining area which fits a table for six and includes sliding glass doors leading out to the back deck. The hallway off the main living area brings you to a full bathroom with a granite vanity, floor to ceiling storage, a walk in shower and heated floors. This level includes three bedrooms, each with hardwood flooring. The Moose Lodge bedroom has a queen bed and its own closet with a safe. The Bear Cave features a king bed and additional closet space. The largest bedroom offers two full size beds and its own private half bathroom with an updated vanity. There is also an attached garage conveniently accessible from this level. Downstairs you will find a fully finished lower level with luxury vinyl plank flooring, additional storage closets and a recently renovated full bathroom with dual sinks, heated floors and a tub shower combination. This level also includes a laundry area, an extra refrigerator and a small secondary kitchen setup with space for a microwave if desired. The lower level opens into a fantastic recreation area that makes this home perfect for hosting and relaxing. There is a pool table, arcade games, a bar, darts and a large seating area with a comfy L shaped couch for movie nights or game days. A fourth sleeping area, known as the Owl's Nest, offers a sleeper sofa, twin over full bunk beds and a fun tent hangout spot. This room also provides walkout access to the backyard. Outside, the property features a spacious deck with plenty of seating, a Blackstone grill and a large fire pit area that creates an ideal setting for evening gatherings. Whether you are looking for a full time residence, vacation home or investment property, this home offers an incredible combination of comfort, functionality and classic Pocono charm.

8. 2022-10-24
   soldstatus $330,000
9. 2022-10-18
   soldstatus $330,000 Closed
10. 2022-06-24
    listed $349,900
11. 2013-04-12
    soldstatus $155,500
12. 2013-01-07
    listed $170,000
13. 2013-01-07
    listed $170,000
14. 2012-05-22
    listed $199,000
15. 1998-08-31
    soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,457 · $705/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,457 · $705/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$8,457
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,564
• − Management: −$2,564
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$27,427
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,582
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Tobyhanna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pocono Pines, PA
• Population (ZIP): 595

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 12% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Korean 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.00%
• Current HPI: 215.5562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+426.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-17 Listed $500,000 PMAR
• 2022-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-18 Sold (MLS) $330,000 PMAR
• 2022-06-24 Listed $349,900 PMAR
• 2013-04-12 Sold (MLS) $155,500 PMAR
• 2013-01-07 Listed $170,000 PMAR
• 2013-01-07 Listed $170,000 PMAR
• 2012-05-22 Listed $199,000 PMAR
• 1998-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $8,457 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.