8865 E Baseline Rd #802 · Mesa, AZ 85209

$84,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 748 sqft · Manufactured · 172 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 1,045 sqft lot $113/sqft · 12% below area Est $96k · 12% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Resort-style living awaits in the highly sought-after Monte Vista Village Resort, a premier 55+ community known for its vibrant lifestyle and exceptional amenities. Built in 2020 and purchased new, this beautifully maintained home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in a thoughtfully designed split-bedroom floor plan. The open-concept layout features modern finishes and comfortable furnishings throughout, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for full-time living or a seasonal escape. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, making it perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Monte Vista Village Resort offers a wide variety of amenities for an active and social lifestyle, including a heated community pool and spa, fully equipped fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts, sauna, shuffleboard, clubhouse, arts and crafts, and regular community events like bingo night. Conveniently located near highway 202, shopping, dining, and medical facilities, everything you need is only just minutes away. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a FURNISHED move-in-ready home in one of the area's most desirable 55+ communities.

Key facts

• Arts and crafts
• Shuffleboard
• 1,045 sq ft lot

Tags

• HEATED COMMUNITY POOL
• FULLY EQUIPPED FITNESS CENTER
• TENNIS AND PICKLEBALL COURTS
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• ARTS AND CRAFTS
• REGULAR COMMUNITY EVENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.7% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 165 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($584 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.28%
• DSCR: 4.08
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,000
• List price: $84,500
• Delta: -11.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8865 E Baseline Rd #1232	0.13mi	2/2.0	748 (0%)	2mo	$96,000	$128	92
8865 E Baseline Rd #1218	0.13mi	2/2.0	748 (0%)	16mo	$135,000	$180	80
8865 E Baseline Rd #441	0.23mi	1/1.0 (-1)	656 (-12%)	6mo	$29,950	$46	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $84,492
• Equity at exit: $30,799

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.63×
• Total profit: $180,633
• Equity at exit: $42,483

Cash invested: $23,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,268/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $1,366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $739

Max offer price $84,500

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,424	-5% $1,395	+0% $1,366	+5% $1,337	+10% $1,308
Rent	-10% $1,171	-5% $1,269	+0% $1,366	+5% $1,464	+10% $1,561
Rate	-1.0pp $1,409	-0.5pp $1,388	base $1,366	+0.5pp $1,344	+1.0pp $1,322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,125
• Closing costs: $2,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8865 E Baseline Rd #1129 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	748	$3,200	$4.28	6d	1	0.14mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #405 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.5	619	$1,900	$3.07	44d	1	0.26mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	616	$1,164	$1.89	44d	1	0.90mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,772	$2.96	2d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,500 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,500 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,500 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,500 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,500 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,500 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,500 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,500 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $84,500 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,500 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,500 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,500 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,500 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    price $84,500 1177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

    Resort-style living awaits in the highly sought-after Monte Vista Village Resort, a premier 55+ community known for its vibrant lifestyle and exceptional amenities. Built in 2020 and purchased new, this beautifully maintained home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in a thoughtfully designed split-bedroom floor plan. The open-concept layout features modern finishes and comfortable furnishings throughout, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for full-time living or a seasonal escape. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, making it perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Monte Vista Village Resort offers a wide variety of amenities for an active and social lifestyle, including a heated community pool and spa, fully equipped fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts, sauna, shuffleboard, clubhouse, arts and crafts, and regular community events like bingo night. Conveniently located near highway 202, shopping, dining, and medical facilities, everything you need is only just minutes away. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a FURNISHED move-in-ready home in one of the area's most desirable 55+ communities.

15. 2026-03-04
    status Active 1177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

    Resort-style living awaits in the highly sought-after Monte Vista Village Resort, a premier 55+ community known for its vibrant lifestyle and exceptional amenities. Built in 2020 and purchased new, this beautifully maintained home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in a thoughtfully designed split-bedroom floor plan. The open-concept layout features modern finishes and comfortable furnishings throughout, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for full-time living or a seasonal escape. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, making it perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Monte Vista Village Resort offers a wide variety of amenities for an active and social lifestyle, including a heated community pool and spa, fully equipped fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts, sauna, shuffleboard, clubhouse, arts and crafts, and regular community events like bingo night. Conveniently located near highway 202, shopping, dining, and medical facilities, everything you need is only just minutes away. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a FURNISHED move-in-ready home in one of the area's most desirable 55+ communities.

16. 2026-03-04
    price $90,900 1177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

    Resort-style living awaits in the highly sought-after Monte Vista Village Resort, a premier 55+ community known for its vibrant lifestyle and exceptional amenities. Built in 2020 and purchased new, this beautifully maintained home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in a thoughtfully designed split-bedroom floor plan. The open-concept layout features modern finishes and comfortable furnishings throughout, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for full-time living or a seasonal escape. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, making it perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Monte Vista Village Resort offers a wide variety of amenities for an active and social lifestyle, including a heated community pool and spa, fully equipped fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts, sauna, shuffleboard, clubhouse, arts and crafts, and regular community events like bingo night. Conveniently located near highway 202, shopping, dining, and medical facilities, everything you need is only just minutes away. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a FURNISHED move-in-ready home in one of the area's most desirable 55+ communities.

17. 2025-11-22
    historical 1177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

    Resort-style living awaits in the highly sought-after Monte Vista Village Resort, a premier 55+ community known for its vibrant lifestyle and exceptional amenities. Built in 2020 and purchased new, this beautifully maintained home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in a thoughtfully designed split-bedroom floor plan. The open-concept layout features modern finishes and comfortable furnishings throughout, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for full-time living or a seasonal escape. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, making it perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Monte Vista Village Resort offers a wide variety of amenities for an active and social lifestyle, including a heated community pool and spa, fully equipped fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts, sauna, shuffleboard, clubhouse, arts and crafts, and regular community events like bingo night. Conveniently located near highway 202, shopping, dining, and medical facilities, everything you need is only just minutes away. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a FURNISHED move-in-ready home in one of the area's most desirable 55+ communities.

18. 2025-09-17
    listed $110,000 Active 1177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

    Resort-style living awaits in the highly sought-after Monte Vista Village Resort, a premier 55+ community known for its vibrant lifestyle and exceptional amenities. Built in 2020 and purchased new, this beautifully maintained home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in a thoughtfully designed split-bedroom floor plan. The open-concept layout features modern finishes and comfortable furnishings throughout, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for full-time living or a seasonal escape. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, making it perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Monte Vista Village Resort offers a wide variety of amenities for an active and social lifestyle, including a heated community pool and spa, fully equipped fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts, sauna, shuffleboard, clubhouse, arts and crafts, and regular community events like bingo night. Conveniently located near highway 202, shopping, dining, and medical facilities, everything you need is only just minutes away. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a FURNISHED move-in-ready home in one of the area's most desirable 55+ communities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,733
• − Property taxes: −$1,268
• − Insurance: −$422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,370
• − Management: −$2,370
• − Depreciation: −$2,458
• Taxable income: $15,999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,840
• After-tax cash flow: $12,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, 2020-built manufactured home in a highly sought-after community offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can significantly improve the look of bathrooms

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can significantly improve the look of bathrooms ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-23.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $84,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $90,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $110,000 ARMLS