428 Cottonwood St · Emporia, KS 66801

$59,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1910 4,356 sqft lot Est $66k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,076
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Lot dimensions approximately 130 x 50

Interior

• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#60 in KS, #3,810 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Emporia (town): math 19% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #146 of 169 in KS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Emporia Middle School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #164 of 219 statewide, top 76%, 900 students, 62% FRL); Emporia High (math 18% / reading 29%, grade F, #161 of 327 statewide, top 50%, 1,510 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lyon County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $60k implies a 242% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $59,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.23%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,636
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 S Constitution St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,228 (+14%)	14mo	$75,000	$61	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $16,102
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $46,652
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66801

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $859/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $520

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $59,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $859 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $859 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$859
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$996
• − Management: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $4,197
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,007
• After-tax cash flow: $3,896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Emporia
• NCES district ID: 2005940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,740
• Composite: 20.34/100
• National rank: #8607
• State rank: #146 of 169 in KS

Livability — Emporia

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #3810

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Emporia, KS
• County: Lyon County · 27,585 people
• City population: 27,585
• Metro: Emporia, KS
• Population (ZIP): 27,585
• Household income: $56,794
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1054.0

Population outlook (Lyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,170 people
• By 2030: 33,104 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 32,526 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 31,863 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 31,879 · -3.9%
• By 2100: 30,609 · -7.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Lyon

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 41.6% · R 56.3% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.0 2016: R+16.2 2012: R+11.9 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -186.93%
• Current HPI: 186.0786
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Emporia, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+223.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $59,900 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2016-01-26 Listed $36,900 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 1990-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
• 1987-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $859 · +22.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.