18411 Autumn Mist Dr · Lutz, FL 33549

$295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1989 10,240 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect balance of privacy, practicality, and modern updates at 18411 Autumn Mist Drive in Lutz. Tucked away on a private road, this unique stilt-style residence offers elevated living with added peace of mind, improved drainage, and enhanced airflow—an ideal design for Florida's climate. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home features a spacious main living area on the upper level, while the lower level provides exceptional versatility with a convenient half bath, laundry area, and two large storage rooms perfect for hobbies, equipment, or additional organizational space. The covered parking area beneath the home includes two carports with room for up to four vehicles, boats, tra

Key facts

• Enhanced airflow
• Convenient half bath
• Large storage rooms

Tags

• STILT-STYLE RESIDENCE
• IMPROVED DRAINAGE
• ENHANCED AIRFLOW
• SPACIOUS MAIN LIVING AREA
• CONVENIENT HALF BATH
• LARGE STORAGE ROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Lot size approximately 0.24 acres; Living area reported as 1,042 (source: appraiser); Total building area reported as 2,538 (source: appraiser)
• HOA & community: No association reported

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; West-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Built as residential (property type: Residential)
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#327 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lutz K-8 School (math 60% / reading 59%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 723 students, 44% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,081 students, 45% FRL); Freedom High School (math 23% / reading 39%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,837 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $295k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,358 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.25%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-49,459
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-63,576
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33549

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,394 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,622/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,285

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $253	-5% $169	+0% $86	+5% $2	+10% $-81
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-9	+0% $86	+5% $180	+10% $275
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $161	base $86	+0.5pp $9	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
327 Trout Lake Ct Lutz, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	22d	1	1.14mi
17499 Hanna Rd Lutz, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,250	$1.57	26d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $295,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,448 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$826/yr (+$69/mo · 50.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$1,622
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,298
• − Management: −$2,298
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$4,076
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$978
• After-tax cash flow: $2,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lutz

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #5741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lutz, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 79,141
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,178
• Household income: $89,343
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 359.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Russian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.66%
• Current HPI: 297.9231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.32%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+637.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Listed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,622 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.