212 Bluebird Ct · Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA 18438

$355,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,444 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1985 0.46 ac lot $246/sqft · at area comps Est $401k · 11% under $108/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 212 Bluebird Court, a charming home in the Woodland Hills community of Lakeville, PA, just minutes from Lake Wallenpaupack!Inside, the living area features a fireplace that makes the space feel warm and comfortable year-round. The layout works well for everyday living or weekend use, with room to host family and friends. The property includes a boat slip, giving you easy access to the lake for boating, fishing, or just getting out on the water. Set in a quiet, wooded neighborhood, the home offers a sense of privacy while still being close to local amenities and outdoor recreation. Whether you're looking for a full-time place or a weekend escape, 212 Bluebird Court is a solid option in a great location!

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Wooded neighborhood
• Local amenities

Tags

• FIREPLACE
• BOAT SLIP
• WOODED NEIGHBORHOOD
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $856 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $355k).
• Recommended offer: $344k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.4% in Wallenpaupack Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#896 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $99k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $344,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.33%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,917
• List price: $355,000
• Delta: -11.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Hemlock Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,447 (+0%)	9mo	$309,000	$214	77
15 Birch Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+2%)	21mo	$344,225	$234	71
32 White Oak Dr	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,242 (-14%)	11mo	$587,900	$473	53
3 Pine Tree Ct	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,242 (-14%)	22mo	$390,000	$314	48
128 Terrace Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	12mo	$385,100	$241	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $117,338
• Equity at exit: $180,932

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $317,733
• Equity at exit: $296,683

Cash invested: $99,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18438

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,111 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$863
• Net cashflow: $856

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,027

Max offer price $355,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,057	-5% $956	+0% $856	+5% $756	+10% $655
Rent	-10% $531	-5% $694	+0% $856	+5% $1,018	+10% $1,181
Rate	-1.0pp $1,035	-0.5pp $946	base $856	+0.5pp $764	+1.0pp $670

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,750
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Lakeview Dr Lakeville, PA	2.0	1.0	896	$3,200	$3.57	8d	1	0.80mi
46 Summit Cir Lakeville, PA	3.0	2.0	1152	$5,000	$4.34	14d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $355,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $355,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $355,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $365,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $365,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $365,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $365,000 Active 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    Welcome to 212 Bluebird Court, a charming home in the Woodland Hills community of Lakeville, PA, just minutes from Lake Wallenpaupack!Inside, the living area features a fireplace that makes the space feel warm and comfortable year-round. The layout works well for everyday living or weekend use, with room to host family and friends. The property includes a boat slip, giving you easy access to the lake for boating, fishing, or just getting out on the water. Set in a quiet, wooded neighborhood, the home offers a sense of privacy while still being close to local amenities and outdoor recreation. Whether you're looking for a full-time place or a weekend escape, 212 Bluebird Court is a solid option in a great location!

18. 2025-08-11
    listed $369,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,285 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,447 · $371/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,162/yr (+$97/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,886
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,946
• − Management: −$3,946
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable income: $4,865
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,168
• After-tax cash flow: $9,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Wallenpaupack Lake Estates

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #9541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,474

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: American 3% Polish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Current HPI: 325.6643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $365,000 PWMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $369,000 PWMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,285 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.