3101 E Este Rd · Terlingua, TX 79852

$91,600

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily · 260 Days on market

Built 2017 Fair condition 5.00 ac lot $19/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check this out! Terlingua Ranch Getaway, Investment Property, Hunting Cabin, or All the above! This 1 bedrm, 1 bathrm, Off Grid Fully Equipped, Furnished & Move in Ready! Easy Access roads, Surrounding Mountain Views, Epic Sunsets & Endless Dark Skies! This property is located just 25miles North of Big Bend National Park, & only 12 miles from the Lodge, Cafe & Sparkling Pool. 1 mile off the paved road, corner lot w/ circle drive, Large Storage Shed, Garden Area, & More! Call Skye for showings.

Key facts

• Garden area
• Large storage shed
• 5 acre lot

Tags

• OFF GRID FULLY EQUIPPED
• SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• GARDEN AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($975 rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#875 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Alpine ISD (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #235 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alpine El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 377 students, 47% FRL); Alpine Middle (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 269 students, 58% FRL); Alpine H S (math 77% / reading 62%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 308 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Brewster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($633 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Brewster County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,608 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.54%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $18,599
• Equity at exit: $41,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $55,696
• Equity at exit: $63,475

Cash invested: $25,648 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79852

• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$480
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$114 /mo · $1,374/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $825

Max offer price $91,600

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $150	+0% $118	+5% $87	+10% $55
Rent	-10% $41	-5% $80	+0% $118	+5% $157	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $142	base $118	+0.5pp $95	+1.0pp $70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,900
• Closing costs: $2,748
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $91,600 Active 260 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $91,600 Active 257 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $91,600 Active 256 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $91,600 Active 255 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $91,600 Active 254 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $91,600 Active 252 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $91,600 Active 251 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $91,600 Active 249 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $91,600 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $91,600 Active 247 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $91,600 Active 246 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $91,600 Active 242 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $91,600 Active 241 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $91,600 Active 240 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $91,600 Active 239 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $91,600 Active 238 DOM
17. 2026-01-16
    price $91,600 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Check this out! Terlingua Ranch Getaway, Investment Property, Hunting Cabin, or All the above! This 1 bedrm, 1 bathrm, Off Grid Fully Equipped, Furnished & Move in Ready! Easy Access roads, Surrounding Mountain Views, Epic Sunsets & Endless Dark Skies! This property is located just 25miles North of Big Bend National Park, & only 12 miles from the Lodge, Cafe & Sparkling Pool. 1 mile off the paved road, corner lot w/ circle drive, Large Storage Shed, Garden Area, & More! Call Skye for showings.

18. 2025-10-05
    listed $93,550 Active 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Check this out! Terlingua Ranch Getaway, Investment Property, Hunting Cabin, or All the above! This 1 bedrm, 1 bathrm, Off Grid Fully Equipped, Furnished & Move in Ready! Easy Access roads, Surrounding Mountain Views, Epic Sunsets & Endless Dark Skies! This property is located just 25miles North of Big Bend National Park, & only 12 miles from the Lodge, Cafe & Sparkling Pool. 1 mile off the paved road, corner lot w/ circle drive, Large Storage Shed, Garden Area, & More! Call Skye for showings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,131
• − Property taxes: −$1,374
• − Insurance: −$458
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$2,665
• Taxable loss: −$26
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6
• After-tax cash flow: $1,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This property is move-in ready with a fair condition, requiring minor repairs and maintenance to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior siding — Weathered but not damaged.
• Minor Paint — Some wear on walls.
• Minor Landscaping — Basic landscaping, could be improved.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and resale value.
• Both New appliances — Modernizes kitchen and increases rental appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered but not damaged.	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint · Some wear on walls.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Basic landscaping, could be improved.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and resale value. ↑
• Both New appliances — Modernizes kitchen and increases rental appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,184
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3814
• State rank: #235 of 826 in TX

Livability — Terlingua

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #875
• US rank: #15764

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 614

Population outlook (Brewster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,850 people
• By 2030: 8,577 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 7,903 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 7,338 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 5,950 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 4,678 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 4%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Brewster

• 2024 margin: R (+12.6) · D 43.0% · R 55.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: -12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.6 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+4.8 2012: R+5.4 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $91,600 ODMLS
• 2025-10-05 Listed $93,550 ODMLS