3214 Rio Grande Trl #00 · Kissimmee, FL 34741

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · Condo public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1986 $111/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Beautiful community of Shadow Bay. This Property is conveniently located close to shops and Schools. Features 3 beds and 2.5 Baths. Property is rented with lease until September 14, 2026. Seller is motivated. Bring your offer soon.

Key facts

• $111 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Condominium unit unfurnished; Lot size ~0.06 acres (approx. 0 to <1/4 acre); Asphalt road access
• HOA & community: HOA required; quarterly association fee of $335 (about $111.67/month); Association covers grounds maintenance; Community clubhouse and pool; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Two-story building; Facing east; Entry on first floor (unit on floor 1 indicated)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area about 1,414 (public records)
• Exterior features: Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths, 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in kitchen area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-67/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Kissimmee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#181 in FL, #2,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, employment D-.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 378 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,051/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 5248% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $220k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,062 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-41,919
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-59,795
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34741

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,230/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$111
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,058

Max offer price $219,015

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $57	+0% $-6	+5% $-68	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-87	+0% $-6	+5% $75	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $50	base $-6	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2914 Rio Grande Trl Unit 2914 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,650	$1.32	8d	1	0.15mi
2351 Pine Brook Dr Kissimmee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	884	$1,550	$1.75	2d	2	0.16mi
2807 Rio Grande Trl #2807 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,645	$1.32	15d	1	0.21mi
2213 San Vittorino Cir #106 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,600	$2.01	25d	1	0.25mi
2220 San Vittorino Cir #104 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,850	$1.43	25d	1	0.26mi
2109 Polo Club Dr Kissimmee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,849	$1.90	2d	10	0.34mi
2201 Cascades Blvd Kissimmee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	926	$2,016	$2.18	3d	19	0.35mi
3831 Bowline Cir #204 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	910	$1,450	$1.59	25d	1	0.36mi
3831 Bowline Cir Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,690	$1.76	25d	1	0.36mi
3503 Bonaire Blvd Kissimmee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,801	$2.39	2d	16	0.39mi
4021 Venetian Bay Dr #102 Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$1,800	$1.22	23d	1	0.40mi
3811 Bowline Cir Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,690	$1.76	25d	1	0.40mi
4008 San Gallo Dr #106 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,995	$1.54	25d	1	0.41mi
4006 San Gallo Dr #104 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	25d	1	0.43mi
3802 Bay Club Cir #101 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	910	$1,600	$1.76	25d	1	0.45mi
4005 Santa Maria Dr #108 Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	18d	1	0.46mi
3835 Nautical Way Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	910	$1,400	$1.54	25d	1	0.48mi
4003 San Sabastian Dr #106 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	25d	1	0.48mi
4013 Venetian Bay Dr #107 Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$2,300	$1.56	25d	1	0.48mi
4013 Venetian Bay Dr #106 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,700	$1.31	8d	1	0.48mi
4005 Bismark Dr Kissimmee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,512	$2.55	2d	358	0.48mi
2101 Vineyard Blvd Kissimmee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	809	$1,884	$2.33	3d	21	0.49mi
4002 San Gallo Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	25d	1	0.49mi
4011 Venetian Bay Dr #104 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	5d	1	0.49mi
2455 Varenna Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1602	$2,550	$1.59	25d	1	0.50mi
4005 Venetian Bay Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.5	1470	$2,150	$1.46	25d	1	0.52mi
4005 Venetian Bay Dr #108 Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.5	1470	$2,150	$1.46	20d	1	0.52mi
4005 Venetian Bay Dr Unit 1257496P Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.5	1463	$2,380	$1.63	8d	1	0.52mi
4007 Venetian Bay Dr #105 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,200	$1.70	25d	1	0.53mi
2280 San Vital Dr #102 Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$1,970	$1.34	12d	1	0.53mi
2280 San Vital Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$1,995	$1.36	12d	1	0.53mi
2290 San Vital Dr #104 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	25d	1	0.53mi
2250 San Vital Dr #107 Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$2,195	$1.49	25d	1	0.54mi
2791 Rapollo Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1540	$3,000	$1.95	17d	1	0.60mi
2220 Barbados Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	991	$1,850	$1.87	25d	1	0.62mi
2201 Key West Ct #318 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,600	$1.56	25d	1	0.63mi
2340 Avian Loop Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1841	$3,200	$1.74	25d	1	0.66mi
2350 Rapollo Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1841	$4,000	$2.17	25d	1	0.66mi
2202 Key West Ct #638 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,475	$1.44	25d	1	0.67mi
2611 Amati Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1603	$2,350	$1.47	18d	1	0.68mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $111 · $1,332/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 246-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $220,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,230 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,230 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,230
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,969
• − Management: −$1,969
• − HOA: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,716
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$892
• After-tax cash flow: $825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kissimmee

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #2841

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kissimmee, FL
• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 196,187
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,716
• Household income: $52,409
• Rent vs Own: 67.1% rent · 32.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 5248.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 20% White 16% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 26% Cuban 4% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 66% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.96%
• Current HPI: 293.3914
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.43%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+241.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Rental Removed $1,800 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed for Rent $1,800 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Rental Removed $1,800 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed for Rent $1,800 STELLARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Rental Removed $1,900 STELLARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Listed for Rent $1,900 STELLARMLS
• 2018-05-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-28 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-28 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-16 Price Changed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-13 Price Changed $151,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-02 Price Changed $152,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-29 Price Changed $157,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-07 Price Changed $159,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-15 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-22 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-18 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-08 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,230 · +13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.