541 Maple Grove Ave · Herkimer, NY 13350

$179,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 1910 1.91 ac lot Est $176k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOVELY AND UNIQUE NATURAL SETTING WITH BABBLING BROOKS AND MATURE SHADE TREE ARE IN YOUR BACKYARD. VERY WELL CARED FOR 1910 HOME WITH ORIGINAL WOOD TRIM. FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM. ADDITIONAL LOT ON LOU AMBERS DR INCLUDED (#120.24-2-7).

Key facts

• Generously sized lot
• Outdoor space
• 1.91 acre lot

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story home; Existing construction; City street frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Enclosed porch; Open porch; Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (includes entry foyer and family room)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Natural woodwork; Has full basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D, employment D.
• Herkimer Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #455 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Herkimer Elementary School (math 51% / reading 48%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 517 students, 71% FRL); Herkimer High School (math 44% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,023 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 579 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 46% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $180k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,078 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.16%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 W German St	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,318 (-2%)	2mo	$195,000	$148	76
704 Ronald St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,384 (+2%)	13mo	$239,900	$173	72
810 Bellinger Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,499 (+11%)	2mo	$174,000	$116	63
620 Ronald St	0.11mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,172 (-13%)	10mo	$244,100	$208	60
305 3rd Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,380 (+2%)	6mo	$106,000	$77	59
111 E German St	0.50mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,456 (+8%)	3mo	$190,000	$130	56
349 Gray St	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,344 (-0%)	13mo	$155,000	$115	56
934 Highland Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,386 (+3%)	15mo	$184,900	$133	49
318 Gray St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,316 (-2%)	11mo	$145,500	$111	47
25 Dayton Pl	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,250 (-7%)	18mo	$170,000	$136	39
401 Harter St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+13%)	5mo	$193,000	$127	34
310 Steuben St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,196 (-11%)	9mo	$148,000	$124	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $86,995
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $265,183
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13350

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$397 /mo · $4,763/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,792

Max offer price $149,078

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-73	-5% $-124	+0% $-174	+5% $-225	+10% $-276
Rent	-10% $-299	-5% $-237	+0% $-174	+5% $-112	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-84	-0.5pp $-129	base $-174	+0.5pp $-221	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Lake St Herkimer, NY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	45d	1	0.83mi
5 Walnut St Mohawk, NY	2.0	1.0	1832	$1,350	$0.74	45d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    listed $179,900 Active
18. 2008-10-08
    soldstatus $65,000 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    LOVELY AND UNIQUE NATURAL SETTING WITH BABBLING BROOKS AND MATURE SHADE TREE ARE IN YOUR BACKYARD. VERY WELL CARED FOR 1910 HOME WITH ORIGINAL WOOD TRIM. FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM. ADDITIONAL LOT ON LOU AMBERS DR INCLUDED (#120.24-2-7).

19. 2008-10-06
    soldstatus $65,000
20. 2008-05-22
    listed $88,900 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    LOVELY AND UNIQUE NATURAL SETTING WITH BABBLING BROOKS AND MATURE SHADE TREE ARE IN YOUR BACKYARD. VERY WELL CARED FOR 1910 HOME WITH ORIGINAL WOOD TRIM. FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM. ADDITIONAL LOT ON LOU AMBERS DR INCLUDED (#120.24-2-7).

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,763 · $397/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,763 · $397/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$4,763
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$5,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,234
• After-tax cash flow: $-860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herkimer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,447
• Composite: 38.87/100
• National rank: #4100
• State rank: #455 of 590 in NY

Livability — Herkimer

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6787

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herkimer, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,641

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 324.4601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+102.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $179,900 CNYIS
• 2008-10-08 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CNYIS
• 2008-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2008-05-22 Listed $88,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,763 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.