320 N Calle Del Lago · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$190,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 965 sqft · Townhouse public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1979 5,140 sqft lot Est $189k · at est. $44/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Whether you're seeking a full-time residence or the perfect seasonal retreat, this 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom townhome is sure to impress. The heart of the home features a nice kitchen complete with butcher block countertops and sleek appliances. You'll find easy-care tile and laminate flooring throughout, complemented by a fresh interior paint. The versatile Arizona room offers extra living space for relaxing or a hobby area, while two dedicated storage units provide plenty of room for gardening tools and gear. While the front carport is advertised for a single car, the concrete pad can accommodate up to three vehicles--perfect for your car, guest parking, and a golf cart! Privacy is a priority

Key facts

• Sleek appliances
• Arizona room
• Guest wing

Tags

• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• SLEEK APPLIANCES
• ARIZONA ROOM
• DEDICATED STORAGE UNITS
• FRONT CARPORT
• GUEST WING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions: 38' x 111' x 39' x 19' x 141'; Zoned Green Valley - TR; Road maintenance by HOA
• HOA & community: Part of Townhouse 7 association; HOA fee $44 annually (covers common area and street maintenance); Association reports no additional amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 carport / covered space
• Security: Wrought iron security door
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Built-up roof
• Exterior features: Paver patio; Shed(s); Block fencing; Decorative gravel and shrubs; East/West exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Exhaust fan; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas pack forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Skylights
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with stacked washer and dryer space; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-618/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $190k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,868 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $189,140
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
261 N Calle Del Lago	0.04mi	2/2.0	965 (0%)	1mo	$189,000	$196	97
361 N Calle De Las Profetas	0.12mi	2/2.0	965 (0%)	0mo	$189,000	$196	94
366 N Calle Del Chancero	0.07mi	2/2.0	965 (0%)	5mo	$180,000	$187	93
161 N Calle Acuarela	0.14mi	2/2.0	965 (0%)	2mo	$195,000	$202	92
348 N Calle De Las Profetas	0.09mi	2/2.0	965 (0%)	5mo	$158,500	$164	92
206 N Calle Acuarela	0.09mi	2/2.0	965 (0%)	6mo	$175,000	$181	91
260 N Camino Del Vate	0.15mi	2/2.0	960 (-0%)	3mo	$212,000	$221	90
308 N Calle De Las Profetas	0.12mi	2/2.0	965 (0%)	8mo	$228,777	$237	88
362 N Calle Del Chancero	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,072 (+11%)	5mo	$215,000	$201	75
374 N Calle Del Chancero	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,072 (+11%)	6mo	$175,000	$163	72
467 N Calle De Las Profetas	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,087 (+13%)	6mo	$130,000	$120	65
151 N Crescent Bell Dr	0.67mi	1/1.0 (-1)	985 (+2%)	3mo	$205,000	$208	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,263
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,089
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,439 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $822/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,504

Max offer price $180,898

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $2	+0% $-52	+5% $-105	+10% $-159
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-108	+0% $-52	+5% $5	+10% $62
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-3	base $-52	+0.5pp $-101	+1.0pp $-151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
230 N Calle Acuarela Unit 230 Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	965	$1,400	$1.45	4d	1	0.03mi
359 N Calle del Chancero Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1061	$1,475	$1.39	16d	1	0.09mi
390 N Calle de las Profetas Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	965	$1,250	$1.30	4d	1	0.14mi
61 N Las Yucas Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	3d	1	0.26mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	2d	1	0.46mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	24d	1	0.51mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	2d	1	0.51mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	24d	1	0.55mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	2d	1	0.56mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	24d	1	0.57mi
337 S Paseo Cerro Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	784	$1,300	$1.66	24d	1	0.57mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	2d	1	0.63mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	24d	1	0.68mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	17d	1	0.72mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	17d	1	0.72mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	24d	1	0.74mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	15d	1	0.74mi
348 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,065	$1.07	17d	1	0.84mi
1040 S Calle de la Temporada Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	24d	1	1.28mi
1567 N Paseo La Tinaja Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,250	$1.17	2d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    listed $190,000 Active
15. 2017-09-07
    soldstatus $81,000
16. 2008-02-11
    soldstatus $115,000
17. 2004-04-19
    soldstatus $55,000
18. 1979-12-10
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $822 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$432/yr (+$36/mo · 52.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$822
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,969
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$952
• After-tax cash flow: $334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+331.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $190,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records
• 2008-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1979-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $822 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.