588 Road 5705 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$140,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 10,454 sqft lot $89/sqft · 25% below area Est $186k · 25% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring an additional office/flex room, perfect for work or extra living space. The property offers fresh exterior paint, a home filtration system, and a semi-new water heater for added peace of mind and a 2022 A/C installation for added comfort and efficiency. Enjoy upgraded PEX plumbing throughout the house, providing durability and efficiency. The seller has also installed high-quality insulation, ensuring excellent energy savings and comfort year-round. This home is move-in ready with valuable improvements already in place!

Key facts

• Office flex room
• Pex plumbing
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• OFFICE FLEX ROOM
• HOME FILTRATION SYSTEM
• PEX PLUMBING
• HIGH QUALITY INSULATION
• 2022 A C INSTALLATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1578 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,577
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -24.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1275 Road 5702	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,692 (+7%)	18mo	$235,000	$139	44
6149 Road 5503	0.72mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,459 (-7%)	6mo	$209,500	$144	42
6141 Road 5503	0.73mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,459 (-7%)	7mo	$209,500	$144	41
1320 Road 5701	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (-10%)	13mo	$214,990	$152	35
1300 Road 5727	0.71mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,344 (-15%)	22mo	$170,000	$126	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-10,215
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $12,178
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1578
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,547/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,390

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $208	+0% $169	+5% $129	+10% $89
Rent	-10% $42	-5% $105	+0% $169	+5% $232	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $204	base $169	+0.5pp $132	+1.0pp $95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1964 Road 5714 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	44d	1	1.20mi
1964 Road 5714 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,575	$1.40	0d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 592-char remark

   Show marketing remark (592 chars)

   Beautiful and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring an additional office/flex room, perfect for work or extra living space. The property offers fresh exterior paint, a home filtration system, and a semi-new water heater for added peace of mind and a 2022 A/C installation for added comfort and efficiency. Enjoy upgraded PEX plumbing throughout the house, providing durability and efficiency. The seller has also installed high-quality insulation, ensuring excellent energy savings and comfort year-round. This home is move-in ready with valuable improvements already in place!

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 592-char remark

   Show marketing remark (592 chars)

   Beautiful and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring an additional office/flex room, perfect for work or extra living space. The property offers fresh exterior paint, a home filtration system, and a semi-new water heater for added peace of mind and a 2022 A/C installation for added comfort and efficiency. Enjoy upgraded PEX plumbing throughout the house, providing durability and efficiency. The seller has also installed high-quality insulation, ensuring excellent energy savings and comfort year-round. This home is move-in ready with valuable improvements already in place!

3. 2026-04-01
   price $140,000 592-char remark

   Show marketing remark (592 chars)

   Beautiful and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring an additional office/flex room, perfect for work or extra living space. The property offers fresh exterior paint, a home filtration system, and a semi-new water heater for added peace of mind and a 2022 A/C installation for added comfort and efficiency. Enjoy upgraded PEX plumbing throughout the house, providing durability and efficiency. The seller has also installed high-quality insulation, ensuring excellent energy savings and comfort year-round. This home is move-in ready with valuable improvements already in place!

4. 2025-11-28
   listed $160,000 Active 592-char remark

   Show marketing remark (592 chars)

   Beautiful and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring an additional office/flex room, perfect for work or extra living space. The property offers fresh exterior paint, a home filtration system, and a semi-new water heater for added peace of mind and a 2022 A/C installation for added comfort and efficiency. Enjoy upgraded PEX plumbing throughout the house, providing durability and efficiency. The seller has also installed high-quality insulation, ensuring excellent energy savings and comfort year-round. This home is move-in ready with valuable improvements already in place!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,547 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,547 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,547
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$29
• After-tax cash flow: $2,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home features modern updates and a fresh exterior, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-28 Listed $160,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+48.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,547 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.