1951 Stanley Rd SW · Varnamtown, NC 28462

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2013 1.08 ac lot Est $264k · 10% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1.088 ACRES = TONS OF SPACE AND PRIVACY!!! Built in 2013, this 4 Bedroom/2 Bath home has 2 Living Rooms, New Carpet, New Paint, and a New Roof in 2026! Rural Lot, Surrounded by Woods, No HOA! Plenty of Space to add a garage, outbuildings, pool, and more! This well-maintained doublewide features the popular split-bedroom floor plan with an open concept, kitchen island, spacious closets, large master bath, and separate laundry area. Owner is a NC Realtor.

Key facts

• Rural lot
• Kitchen island
• 1.088 acres

Tags

• 1.088 ACRES
• RURAL LOT
• SURROUNDED BY WOODS
• NO HOA
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.08 acres (dimensions: 197 x 280 x 141 x 267); Zoning: CO-RR

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Water and sewer connections available
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Single-story, entry level on main floor
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Permanent foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; No patio or porch listed; No fencing; Has a view; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range / Electric range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes all living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); No basement; crawl space foundation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Varnamtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#521 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, employment B; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 506 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $290k implies a 1134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,297 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,384
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1879 Rolling Green Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (-2%)	8mo	$245,000	$129	55
1883 Rolling Green Dr SW	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-7%)	2mo	$245,000	$136	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-54,938
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-58,516
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28462

• Active inventory: 506
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,003 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $767/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,158

Max offer price $268,242

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-41	+0% $-123	+5% $-205	+10% $-287
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-202	+0% $-123	+5% $-43	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-49	base $-123	+0.5pp $-198	+1.0pp $-274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-23
    listed $289,900 Active
18. 2007-03-22
    soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $767 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,611/yr (+$134/mo · 210.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$767
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$6,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,608
• After-tax cash flow: $136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Varnamtown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #19194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,340
• Household income: $60,349
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 269.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.44%
• Current HPI: 144.2462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1133.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $289,900 Hive MLS
• 2007-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $767 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.