2881 Sheridan Ave · Wellsville, NY 14895

$74,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,274 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1940 0.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This charming 3-bedroom affordable Cape Cod can be your forever home! Just add a little TLC & your own personal style. This home is so conveniently located just outside of the village limits but very close to village amenities. It sits on a little over a half-acre, & the yard feels like a park. It’s perfect for games, pets, & outdoor entertaining. The main floor has an eat-in kitchen & includes appliances. The kitchen is steps from the full bathroom & laundry, washer/dryer included too. The kitchen is open to the living rm. This space is nice for visiting guests, a reading area or tv time. The main floor bedroom is right next door. If you’d like a ran

Key facts

• Storage room
• Full bathroom
• Open to living rm

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FULL BATHROOM
• LAUNDRY
• OPEN TO LIVING RM
• HUGE PARKING AREA
• STORAGE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 6.6% in Wellsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#336 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities D-.
• Wellsville Central School District (town): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #442 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wellsville Elementary School (math 43% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,356 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 482 students, 50% FRL); Wellsville Secondary School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 647 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $72,653 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.22%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.66×
• Total profit: $76,721
• Equity at exit: $67,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.43×
• Total profit: $197,848
• Equity at exit: $145,514

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14895

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,900/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $737

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $606	-5% $584	+0% $563	+5% $542	+10% $521
Rent	-10% $449	-5% $506	+0% $563	+5% $620	+10% $678
Rate	-1.0pp $601	-0.5pp $582	base $563	+0.5pp $544	+1.0pp $524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
46 Pine St Wellsville, NY	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	45d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-02-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-16
   status Active
3. 2026-01-29
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-01-14
   listed $74,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,900 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,900 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,900
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $5,967
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,432
• After-tax cash flow: $5,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630480
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,964
• Composite: 39.71/100
• National rank: #3903
• State rank: #442 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wellsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #336
• US rank: #5669

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,117

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.16%
• Current HPI: 280.3569
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-16 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-29 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $74,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,900 · -13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.