4925 Paseo Del Rey Dr · Brownsville, TX 78526

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1986 6,000 sqft lot Est $224k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom property is the perfect project for investors or handy homeowners looking to build immediate equity. Situated just minutes from the Pablo Kisel Blvd, schools, and hospital. This home combines an unbeatable location with immense upside potential.

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1986
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the El Chaparral subdivision

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Burns El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 604 students, 92% FRL); Vela Middle (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 638 students, 82% FRL); Hanna Early College H S (math 24% / reading 49%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,246 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools at 87% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,150 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.65%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,568
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
987 Paso Del Rio Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,457 (+2%)	21mo	$199,999	$137	68
4951 Daffodil Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+5%)	16mo	$239,500	$160	50
1558 Guadalajara Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,581 (+11%)	17mo	$249,000	$157	45
4840 Larkspur Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,591 (+12%)	6mo	$245,500	$154	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-12,457
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $11,490
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78526

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,984 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,361/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $402	-5% $349	+0% $295	+5% $241	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $217	+0% $295	+5% $373	+10% $452
Rate	-1.0pp $391	-0.5pp $343	base $295	+0.5pp $246	+1.0pp $196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1124 Sierra Grande Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,599	$1.22	23d	1	0.10mi
4883 Camino Verde Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	0.10mi
1044 Alta Mesa Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,700	$1.33	15d	1	0.15mi
1315 Pinion Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,950	$1.22	45d	1	0.22mi
944 Alta Mesa Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1582	$1,900	$1.20	23d	1	0.27mi
1587 Pinion Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,750	$1.43	45d	1	0.50mi
1683 Artemisa Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$1,950	$1.14	23d	1	0.55mi
1653 W San Marcelo Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,700	$1.40	23d	1	0.58mi
4951 Daffodil Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,400	$1.60	23d	1	0.61mi
4951 Daffodil Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,400	$1.60	45d	1	0.61mi
2066 Saketa Ln Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,700	$1.44	15d	1	0.84mi
2043 Saketa Ln Unit A Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,700	$1.87	23d	1	0.88mi
2018 Diamond Dr Unit A Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.5	1465	$1,750	$1.19	45d	1	0.90mi
2019 Diamond Dr Unit B Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1565	$1,950	$1.25	23d	1	0.91mi
2011 Diamond Dr Unit A Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.5	1465	$2,900	$1.98	23d	1	0.92mi
6732 Stone Oak Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,300	$1.29	15d	1	1.05mi
2107 Carlos Ave Unit A Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	15d	1	1.15mi
6601 Garden Woods Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1291	$1,600	$1.24	45d	1	1.15mi
15 Valles Ct Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$2,350	$1.37	15d	1	1.17mi
5871 Greenwood Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$1,950	$1.07	15d	1	1.18mi
2100 W San Marcelo Blvd Apt 185 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	23d	1	1.24mi
124 Barcelona Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,900	$1.70	23d	1	1.29mi
2100 W San Marcelo Blvd Brownsville, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1069	$1,500	$1.40	45d	2	1.32mi
6978 Heritage Oak Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,250	$1.52	23d	1	1.37mi
2034 Toluca Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1669	$2,000	$1.20	23d	1	1.38mi
184 Stars Ave Unit 7 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,900	$1.31	23d	1	1.44mi
35 La Paz Ct Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1660	$1,900	$1.14	15d	1	1.47mi
6705 Garden Woods Ave Unit B Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,550	$1.15	15d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $190,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 272-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $190,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,361 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,116/yr (+$93/mo · 47.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,361
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,904
• − Management: −$1,904
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $516
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$124
• After-tax cash flow: $3,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 60,012
• Household income: $70,565
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1063.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 45% White 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 87%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 79% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.28%
• Current HPI: 220.5233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $190,000 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,361 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.