243 Water St · Northumberland, PA 17857

$144,900

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 4,219 sqft · Other · 7 Days on market

Built 1900 0.31 ac lot $34/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Own a piece of Northumberland history! The barn/garage on this property once was the stable of Joseph Priestley's horses. This stately 1800s home has a large kitchen with fireplace, a grand foyer with original woodwork, a large formal dining room with built-in china cabinets and space, space space! The work shop and den provide opportunities for home business. The yard is private and tranquil with a patio and mature trees. Co-listing agent Denise M Haddon is related to sellers. Sq Footage from county assessment data. Room sizes are approximate.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 6 garage spots
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Finished above-grade area is approximately 4,219 (estimated); Lot dimensions approximately 70 x 192

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Six garage spaces; Asphalt driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electric service; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached property; Estimated year built; Average condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Stone foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Garage(s) on the property
• Exterior features: Vinyl and wood fencing; Property sits directly on Water Street with parking to the rear

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the upper level; One bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (upper level); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pumps; Electric and oil heating fuel; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Plaster walls; Bonus room; Basement with dirt floor; At least two access exits
• Laundry & utility: Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#423 in PA, #3,861 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Shikellamy SD (town): math 33% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #362 of 539 in PA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Priestley Sch (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #586 of 1,518 statewide, top 42%, 261 students, 100% FRL); Shikellamy Ms (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #342 of 512 statewide, top 67%, 674 students, 100% FRL); Shikellamy Hs (math 52% / reading 24%, grade F, #281 of 437 statewide, top 65%, 887 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 46% district-wide (52 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $145k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,874 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,828
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: -59.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-28,771
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-31,514
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17857

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,577/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $129,874

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3	-5% $-44	+0% $-85	+5% $-126	+10% $-167
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-140	+0% $-85	+5% $-31	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-48	base $-85	+0.5pp $-123	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 1520-char remark
2. 2026-05-10
   listed $144,900 Active 1520-char remark
3. 2026-05-09
   historical $144,900 1520-char remark
4. 2026-04-08
   soldstatus $92,750
5. 2018-06-21
   soldstatus $100,000 550-char remark

   Show marketing remark (550 chars)

   Own a piece of Northumberland history! The barn/garage on this property once was the stable of Joseph Priestley's horses. This stately 1800s home has a large kitchen with fireplace, a grand foyer with original woodwork, a large formal dining room with built-in china cabinets and space, space space! The work shop and den provide opportunities for home business. The yard is private and tranquil with a patio and mature trees. Co-listing agent Denise M Haddon is related to sellers. Sq Footage from county assessment data. Room sizes are approximate.

6. 2016-11-16
   listed $124,900 550-char remark

   Show marketing remark (550 chars)

   Own a piece of Northumberland history! The barn/garage on this property once was the stable of Joseph Priestley's horses. This stately 1800s home has a large kitchen with fireplace, a grand foyer with original woodwork, a large formal dining room with built-in china cabinets and space, space space! The work shop and den provide opportunities for home business. The yard is private and tranquil with a patio and mature trees. Co-listing agent Denise M Haddon is related to sellers. Sq Footage from county assessment data. Room sizes are approximate.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,577 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,577 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$3,577
• − Insurance: −$1,391
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,323
• − Management: −$1,323
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$3,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$818
• After-tax cash flow: $-203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shikellamy SD
• NCES district ID: 4221540
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $41,227
• Composite: 33.6/100
• National rank: #5415
• State rank: #362 of 539 in PA

Livability — Northumberland

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #3861

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northumberland, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,682

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: French 4% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.84%
• Current HPI: 191.4259
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+16.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-10 Listed $144,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-09 Coming Soon $144,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $92,750 Public Records
• 2018-06-21 Sold (MLS) $100,000 CSVBR
• 2016-11-16 Listed $124,900 CSVBR

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,577 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.