453E Chesterfield Ct · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$153,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 848 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

Good condition $180/sqft · 18% below area Est $187k · 18% under $370/mo HOA · 17% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained home in the desirable 55+ community of Leisure Village West! This inviting residence features a bright living room, a functional eat-in kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a dedicated dining area. The home offers a generously sized bedroom, a full bathroom, and plenty of closet space throughout. Can easily be converted back to a 2 bedroom. Additional highlights include low-maintenance living and access to community amenities. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways, this home provides both comfort and convenience in a peaceful setting. Don't miss this great opportunity!

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Eat-in kitchen
• Conveniently located

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $153k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $144k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.8% in Leisure Village West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,820 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.35%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,890
• List price: $153,000
• Delta: -18.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51D Edinburgh Ln	0.14mi	2/1.0	836 (-1%)	2mo	$229,900	$275	90
51B Edinburgh Ln	0.13mi	2/1.0	830 (-2%)	6mo	$175,000	$211	86
1D Sterling St	0.27mi	2/1.0	836 (-1%)	2mo	$170,000	$203	83
13C Sterling St	0.26mi	2/1.0	836 (-1%)	6mo	$207,000	$248	80
8A Edinburgh Ln Unit A	0.08mi	2/1.0	939 (+11%)	1mo	$195,000	$208	78
7B Cambridge Cir Unit B	0.32mi	2/1.0	861 (+2%)	8mo	$185,000	$215	76
59B Cambridge Cir	0.47mi	2/1.0	861 (+2%)	3mo	$218,000	$253	73
439-H Chesterfield Ct	0.04mi	2/2.0	946 (+12%)	6mo	$184,000	$195	70
440 Dartmoor Way Unit I	0.07mi	2/2.0	946 (+12%)	5mo	$185,000	$196	70
440 G Dartmoor Way	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	738 (-13%)	7mo	$165,000	$224	64
1101 Lawrence Ave	0.55mi	2/1.5	792 (-7%)	2mo	$399,000	$504	60
17E Cambridge Cir	0.42mi	2/1.0	968 (+14%)	8mo	$163,000	$168	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,274
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $25,581
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$191 /mo · $2,295/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$370
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,807

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	44d	1	0.13mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	44d	1	1.15mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	1d	3	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $370 · $4,440/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $153,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $153,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $153,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $153,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $162,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $162,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $162,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $162,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $162,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $162,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $162,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $162,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $162,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $162,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $162,000 635-char remark

    Show marketing remark (635 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained home in the desirable 55+ community of Leisure Village West! This inviting residence features a bright living room, a functional eat-in kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a dedicated dining area. The home offers a generously sized bedroom, a full bathroom, and plenty of closet space throughout. Can easily be converted back to a 2 bedroom. Additional highlights include low-maintenance living and access to community amenities. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways, this home provides both comfort and convenience in a peaceful setting. Don't miss this great opportunity!

16. 2026-03-26
    listed $168,000 Active 635-char remark

    Show marketing remark (635 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained home in the desirable 55+ community of Leisure Village West! This inviting residence features a bright living room, a functional eat-in kitchen with ample cabinet space, and a dedicated dining area. The home offers a generously sized bedroom, a full bathroom, and plenty of closet space throughout. Can easily be converted back to a 2 bedroom. Additional highlights include low-maintenance living and access to community amenities. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways, this home provides both comfort and convenience in a peaceful setting. Don't miss this great opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$2,295
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,140
• − Management: −$2,140
• − HOA: −$4,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable income: $1,950
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$468
• After-tax cash flow: $3,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained home in Leisure Village West is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a bright living room, a functional eat-in kitchen, and a dedicated dining area. The home is conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways, making it a great opportunity for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Rental Clean the gutters — A clean and well-maintained exterior can attract tenants and increase rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Rental Clean the gutters — A clean and well-maintained exterior can attract tenants and increase rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $162,000 MOMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $168,000 MOMLS