125 Chelsea Unit Dr #27 · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$169,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · Condo · 98 Days on market

Built 1985 $151/sqft · 96% above area $402/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this gorgeously remodeled Cliffside Lodge condo with a lake view, located in the heart of Fairfield Bay. This beautifully updated downstairs unit is being offered fully furnished with all new furnishings, making it truly turnkey and ready to enjoy or rent immediately. Recent upgrades include a new HVAC system, stylish finishes, and modern updates throughout, creating a comfortable and inviting retreat. Enjoy relaxing views of the lake and the convenience of being within walking distance to the popular Cool Pool. Whether you're looking for a vacation getaway, investment property, or VRBO opportunity, this condo offers exceptional value and location. Fairfield Bay is known for its incredible amenities, including three swimming pools, tennis courts, pickleball, bowling, miniature golf, two 18-hole championship golf courses, scenic hiking and biking trails, and over 80 miles of ATV/UTV trails. Spend your days on Greers Ferry Lake, a stunning 40,000-acre lake, with access to a full-service marina for boating, fishing, and water recreation. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a lake-area retreat in one of Arkansas’ most sought-after resort communities.

Key facts

• Pickleball
• Three swimming pools
• Lake view

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• FULLY FURNISHED
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• THREE SWIMMING POOLS
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLEBALL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($46/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $366 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-809 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $154,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,758
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: 95.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Hillview Dr	0.50mi	2/1.5	1,033 (-8%)	18mo	$25,000	$24	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,215
• Equity at exit: $45,325

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $12,412
• Equity at exit: $51,379

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,548/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$402
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,995

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	44d	1	0.35mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $402 · $4,824/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-03-13
    listed $169,900 New Listing 1186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1186 chars)

    Welcome to this gorgeously remodeled Cliffside Lodge condo with a lake view, located in the heart of Fairfield Bay. This beautifully updated downstairs unit is being offered fully furnished with all new furnishings, making it truly turnkey and ready to enjoy or rent immediately. Recent upgrades include a new HVAC system, stylish finishes, and modern updates throughout, creating a comfortable and inviting retreat. Enjoy relaxing views of the lake and the convenience of being within walking distance to the popular Cool Pool. Whether you're looking for a vacation getaway, investment property, or VRBO opportunity, this condo offers exceptional value and location. Fairfield Bay is known for its incredible amenities, including three swimming pools, tennis courts, pickleball, bowling, miniature golf, two 18-hole championship golf courses, scenic hiking and biking trails, and over 80 miles of ATV/UTV trails. Spend your days on Greers Ferry Lake, a stunning 40,000-acre lake, with access to a full-service marina for boating, fishing, and water recreation. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a lake-area retreat in one of Arkansas’ most sought-after resort communities.

18. 2023-12-13
    soldstatus $170,000 Sold 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Cliffside Lodge unit. Gorgeously remodeled with partial lakeview. Turnkey with all brand new furnishings. Located within walking distance to the Cool Pool. This unit is located downstairs. Would make a great VRBO or your own get away. Fairfield Bay offers 3 pools, tennis courts, bowling, pickle ball, 2-18 hole golf courses, miniature golf, hiking & biking trails, 80 miles of atv/utv trails, full service marina on a 40,000 acre lake. Catch this opportunity before it is gone.

19. 2023-12-11
    price $179,000 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Cliffside Lodge unit. Gorgeously remodeled with partial lakeview. Turnkey with all brand new furnishings. Located within walking distance to the Cool Pool. This unit is located downstairs. Would make a great VRBO or your own get away. Fairfield Bay offers 3 pools, tennis courts, bowling, pickle ball, 2-18 hole golf courses, miniature golf, hiking & biking trails, 80 miles of atv/utv trails, full service marina on a 40,000 acre lake. Catch this opportunity before it is gone.

20. 2023-12-10
    status Under Con. Before Listed 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Cliffside Lodge unit. Gorgeously remodeled with partial lakeview. Turnkey with all brand new furnishings. Located within walking distance to the Cool Pool. This unit is located downstairs. Would make a great VRBO or your own get away. Fairfield Bay offers 3 pools, tennis courts, bowling, pickle ball, 2-18 hole golf courses, miniature golf, hiking & biking trails, 80 miles of atv/utv trails, full service marina on a 40,000 acre lake. Catch this opportunity before it is gone.

21. 2023-12-10
    status Take Backups 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Cliffside Lodge unit. Gorgeously remodeled with partial lakeview. Turnkey with all brand new furnishings. Located within walking distance to the Cool Pool. This unit is located downstairs. Would make a great VRBO or your own get away. Fairfield Bay offers 3 pools, tennis courts, bowling, pickle ball, 2-18 hole golf courses, miniature golf, hiking & biking trails, 80 miles of atv/utv trails, full service marina on a 40,000 acre lake. Catch this opportunity before it is gone.

22. 2023-05-10
    historical
23. 2022-11-09
    listed $179,500 New Listing
24. 2022-08-11
    historical 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Cliffside Lodge unit. Gorgeously remodeled with partial lakeview. Turnkey with all brand new furnishings. Located within walking distance to the Cool Pool. This unit is located downstairs. Would make a great VRBO or your own get away. Fairfield Bay offers 3 pools, tennis courts, bowling, pickle ball, 2-18 hole golf courses, miniature golf, hiking & biking trails, 80 miles of atv/utv trails, full service marina on a 40,000 acre lake. Catch this opportunity before it is gone.

25. 2022-07-13
    price $179,500 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Cliffside Lodge unit. Gorgeously remodeled with partial lakeview. Turnkey with all brand new furnishings. Located within walking distance to the Cool Pool. This unit is located downstairs. Would make a great VRBO or your own get away. Fairfield Bay offers 3 pools, tennis courts, bowling, pickle ball, 2-18 hole golf courses, miniature golf, hiking & biking trails, 80 miles of atv/utv trails, full service marina on a 40,000 acre lake. Catch this opportunity before it is gone.

26. 2022-05-06
    status Back on Market 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Cliffside Lodge unit. Gorgeously remodeled with partial lakeview. Turnkey with all brand new furnishings. Located within walking distance to the Cool Pool. This unit is located downstairs. Would make a great VRBO or your own get away. Fairfield Bay offers 3 pools, tennis courts, bowling, pickle ball, 2-18 hole golf courses, miniature golf, hiking & biking trails, 80 miles of atv/utv trails, full service marina on a 40,000 acre lake. Catch this opportunity before it is gone.

27. 2022-05-02
    historical Take Backups 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Cliffside Lodge unit. Gorgeously remodeled with partial lakeview. Turnkey with all brand new furnishings. Located within walking distance to the Cool Pool. This unit is located downstairs. Would make a great VRBO or your own get away. Fairfield Bay offers 3 pools, tennis courts, bowling, pickle ball, 2-18 hole golf courses, miniature golf, hiking & biking trails, 80 miles of atv/utv trails, full service marina on a 40,000 acre lake. Catch this opportunity before it is gone.

28. 2022-04-22
    listed $185,000 New Listing 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Cliffside Lodge unit. Gorgeously remodeled with partial lakeview. Turnkey with all brand new furnishings. Located within walking distance to the Cool Pool. This unit is located downstairs. Would make a great VRBO or your own get away. Fairfield Bay offers 3 pools, tennis courts, bowling, pickle ball, 2-18 hole golf courses, miniature golf, hiking & biking trails, 80 miles of atv/utv trails, full service marina on a 40,000 acre lake. Catch this opportunity before it is gone.

29. 2021-04-13
    historical
30. 2021-04-08
    soldstatus $85,000 Sold
31. 2021-03-19
    historical Take Backups
32. 2021-03-02
    price $92,500
33. 2021-01-12
    listed $94,900 New Listing
34. 2017-01-30
    status Under Contract
35. 2017-01-30
    soldstatus $52,900 Sold
36. 2017-01-01
    historical
37. 2016-08-22
    price $52,900
38. 2016-07-18
    price $54,900
39. 2016-04-18
    listed $56,500 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,548
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$4,824
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$2,522
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$605
• After-tax cash flow: $651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+200.7% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $169,900 CARMLS
• 2023-12-13 Sold (MLS) $170,000 CARMLS
• 2023-12-11 Price Changed $179,000 CARMLS
• 2023-12-10 Pending — CARMLS
• 2023-12-10 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2023-05-10 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2022-11-09 Listed $179,500 CARMLS
• 2022-08-11 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2022-07-13 Price Changed $179,500 CARMLS
• 2022-05-06 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2022-05-02 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2022-04-22 Listed $185,000 CARMLS
• 2021-04-13 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2021-04-08 Sold (MLS) $85,000 CARMLS
• 2021-03-19 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2021-03-02 Price Changed $92,500 CARMLS
• 2021-01-12 Listed $94,900 CARMLS
• 2017-01-30 Pending — CARMLS
• 2017-01-30 Sold (MLS) $52,900 CARMLS
• 2017-01-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2016-08-22 Price Changed $52,900 CARMLS
• 2016-07-18 Price Changed $54,900 CARMLS
• 2016-04-18 Listed $56,500 CARMLS