3128 CR 418 · Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$69,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1989 8,866 sqft lot Est $119k · 41% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

VERY NICE 3/2 MH NEW ROOF 1 1/2 YEAR OLD WITH WARRANTY FOR 12 YEARS, PORCH 2 YEARS , SHED 12X14 WASHER DRYER STAY.

Key facts

• 10x10 storage shed
• 0.20 acres
• 8,866 sq ft lot

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• 0.20 ACRES
• 10X10 STORAGE SHED
• CENTRAL HVAC DUCTWORK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.2 acres (80 x 111); Living area about 1,144 (public records)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Third-party listing
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Residential property; One story; Faces east; Fixer condition
• Construction: Built-Up roof; Other construction materials; Crawlspace foundation; Built in 0 to less than 1/4 acre setting
• Exterior features: Storage; Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air and wall/window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $812 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 6.0% in Lake Panasoffkee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Panasoffkee Elementary School (math 62% / reading 66%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 584 students, 65% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,890 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.71%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,976
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3617 CR 406	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+1%)	4mo	$120,000	$104	71
2880 CR 426a	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-8%)	4mo	$130,000	$123	54
2834 County Road 423	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-9%)	16mo	$80,000	$77	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $67,773
• Equity at exit: $39,609

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.17×
• Total profit: $160,205
• Equity at exit: $68,315

Cash invested: $19,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33538

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $436/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $812

Break-even live

Break-even rent $547

Max offer price $69,990

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $851	-5% $832	+0% $812	+5% $792	+10% $772
Rent	-10% $687	-5% $750	+0% $812	+5% $874	+10% $936
Rate	-1.0pp $847	-0.5pp $830	base $812	+0.5pp $794	+1.0pp $775

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,498
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1314 CR 443 Lake Panasoffkee, FL	2.0	2.0	973	$1,575	$1.62	22d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $69,990 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,990 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,990 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,990 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,990 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,990 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,990 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $69,990 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,990 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $74,990 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,990 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,990 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,990 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,990 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,990 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,990 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $79,990 Active
18. 2026-03-11
    historical
19. 2026-03-05
    listed $79,900 Active
20. 2005-11-23
    soldstatus $85,000
21. 2005-11-22
    soldstatus $85,000 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    VERY NICE 3/2 MH NEW ROOF 1 1/2 YEAR OLD WITH WARRANTY FOR 12 YEARS, PORCH 2 YEARS , SHED 12X14 WASHER DRYER STAY.

22. 2005-08-20
    listed $82,000 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    VERY NICE 3/2 MH NEW ROOF 1 1/2 YEAR OLD WITH WARRANTY FOR 12 YEARS, PORCH 2 YEARS , SHED 12X14 WASHER DRYER STAY.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $436 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $581 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$145/yr (+$12/mo · 33.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$436
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $9,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,192
• After-tax cash flow: $7,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Panasoffkee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Panasoffkee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,748

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Current HPI: 329.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $79,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-22 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-20 Listed $82,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $436 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.