2631 Lark Ln · Humble, TX 77396

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,399 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1979 7,701 sqft lot $136/sqft · 15% below area Est $223k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers 1,399 sq ft of living space on a 7,700 sq ft lot. The functional floor plan features a spacious living area with fireplace and a kitchen open to dining and living spaces that is ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Easy access to HWY 59 in the growing Humble area. Schedule your showing today and see the potential this Humble home has to offer!

Key facts

• 7,701 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.7% in Humble — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#961 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,908 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,059
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -14.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2651 Lark Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	1mo	$169,000	$119	94
2650 Lark Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+4%)	11mo	$245,000	$169	81
2875 Pheasant Run	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+2%)	16mo	$230,000	$161	72
2807 Canary Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+6%)	9mo	$235,000	$158	71
2819 Sandpiper St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+4%)	13mo	$202,000	$139	71
2903 Pheasant Run	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,391 (-1%)	18mo	$169,900	$122	69
2714 Quail Run Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,545 (+10%)	13mo	$209,900	$136	61
2870 Pheasant Run	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+10%)	20mo	$219,000	$143	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-44,247
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-67,862
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77396

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,619 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,111/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,794

Max offer price $165,438

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3011 Pheasant Run Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,900	$1.23	20d	1	0.48mi
3119 Dove Cove Cir Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,973	$1.09	43d	1	0.58mi
17750 U.S. 59 Unit 2047 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,174	$1.14	11d	1	0.77mi
17750 U.S. 59 Unit 2162 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,139	$1.10	4d	1	0.77mi
17750 U.S. 59 Unit 17807 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,131	$1.09	2d	1	0.77mi
17750 U.S. 59 Unit 425 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,139	$1.10	7d	1	0.77mi
230 Atascocita Rd Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,129	$1.19	43d	1	1.02mi
8002 Scarlet Tanager Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1690	$1,865	$1.10	1d	1	1.03mi
8222 Eastern Bluebird Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,635	$1.33	24d	1	1.28mi
15818 Nutcracker Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,901	$1.20	43d	1	1.39mi
15235 Heron Park Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1677	$1,700	$1.01	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Pending 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Pending 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Pending 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Pending 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,900 Pending 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,900 Pending 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $189,900 Pending 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-05-19
    price $189,900 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers 1,399 sq ft of living space on a 7,700 sq ft lot. The functional floor plan features a spacious living area with fireplace and a kitchen open to dining and living spaces that is ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Easy access to HWY 59 in the growing Humble area. Schedule your showing today and see the potential this Humble home has to offer!

11. 2026-03-06
    price $199,900 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers 1,399 sq ft of living space on a 7,700 sq ft lot. The functional floor plan features a spacious living area with fireplace and a kitchen open to dining and living spaces that is ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Easy access to HWY 59 in the growing Humble area. Schedule your showing today and see the potential this Humble home has to offer!

12. 2026-02-25
    listed $210,000 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers 1,399 sq ft of living space on a 7,700 sq ft lot. The functional floor plan features a spacious living area with fireplace and a kitchen open to dining and living spaces that is ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Easy access to HWY 59 in the growing Humble area. Schedule your showing today and see the potential this Humble home has to offer!

13. 2021-10-05
    soldstatus
14. 2021-10-01
    soldstatus Sold 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Beautiful 3 beds, 2 bath and 2 car garage home. Conveniently located close to 59 and beltway 8. Home has new Hvac system, new Roof, granite countertops, Kitchen Cabinets, fresh paint, new fixtures and no carpet. This one is move in ready.

15. 2021-09-24
    status Option Pending 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Beautiful 3 beds, 2 bath and 2 car garage home. Conveniently located close to 59 and beltway 8. Home has new Hvac system, new Roof, granite countertops, Kitchen Cabinets, fresh paint, new fixtures and no carpet. This one is move in ready.

16. 2021-09-11
    listed $175,999 Active 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Beautiful 3 beds, 2 bath and 2 car garage home. Conveniently located close to 59 and beltway 8. Home has new Hvac system, new Roof, granite countertops, Kitchen Cabinets, fresh paint, new fixtures and no carpet. This one is move in ready.

17. 2000-11-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,111 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,111 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,429
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,111
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,554
• − Management: −$1,554
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$4,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,176
• After-tax cash flow: $-485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Humble

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #961
• US rank: #17060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Humble, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 109,766
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 61,735
• Household income: $78,169
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Black 29% Two or more races 19% White 19% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 37% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.66%
• Current HPI: 243.7012
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-09-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-11 Listed $175,999 HARMLS
• 2000-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,111 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.