1540 Mack St · Spring Lake, NC 28390

$200,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,231 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $182k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect opportunity to make this your dream home. So much potential and room to grow. Home offers 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, living room, formal dining room, eat in kitchen and nice size bedrooms. Large kitchen with tons of counter and cabinet space. Great location centrally located to schools, shopping, dining and so much more. Easy commute to military base, I95 and I295. Convenient to Fayetteville and Raleigh. Large fenced in yard with storage. Single carport as well.

Key facts

• Great location
• Large kitchen
• Fenced in yard

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• FENCED IN YARD
• GREAT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residential; Multi/split levels; Brick veneer exterior; Residential zoning (R10)
• Construction: Brick veneer construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; Covered porch; Back yard fencing; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Storage space; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($815/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.5% in Spring Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#543 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Lake Middle (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #406 of 475 statewide, top 86%, 512 students, 99% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 55% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $200k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,188
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1409 Milton St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (+2%)	18mo	$180,000	$144	60
1419 Milton St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,249 (+2%)	23mo	$185,000	$148	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-25,192
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,152
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28390

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 348
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,322/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,784

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 143 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 141 DOM
16. 2026-03-17
    price $200,000
17. 2026-02-06
    price $220,000
18. 2026-01-09
    listed $225,000 Active
19. 2025-11-01
    price $229,000
20. 2025-10-27
    price $235,000
21. 2025-09-17
    listed $249,900 Active
22. 2012-08-02
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,322 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,322 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,322
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$600
• After-tax cash flow: $1,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Spring Lake

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #543
• US rank: #19811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Lake, NC
• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 24,000
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $62,972
• Rent vs Own: 50.7% rent · 49.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.43%
• Current HPI: 207.9349
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.49%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $200,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $220,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $225,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $229,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $235,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $249,900 LPRMLS
• 2012-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,322 · +76.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.