12025 Dwyer Rd NW · Old Town, NM 88030

$1

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 4,634 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1986 30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is on an auction. Horse Property, on 29.64 acres. Unique property with 4634 sq ft. 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, included in the square footage is a guest quarters with kitchen, living room, bedroom and bath. Huge primary bedroom, with walk in closet, and access to the courtyard. 2 car detached garage. Horse stalls with an office area. Dog kennels.

Key facts

• Courtyard access
• Guest quarters
• 29.64 acres

Tags

• 29.64 ACRES
• GUEST QUARTERS
• WALK IN CLOSET
• COURTYARD ACCESS
• HORSE STALLS
• OFFICE AREA

🔨 Auction listing. The $1 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $1 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $967 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Deming Public Schools (town): math 18% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #63 of 95 in NM (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Luna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $0 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $0 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Luna County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $0 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 122391.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 1160264.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4143779.95%
• DSCR: 184375.89
• GRM: 0.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 219999.33×
• Total profit: $61,600
• Equity at exit: $0

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 475038.43×
• Total profit: $133,010
• Equity at exit: $0

Cash invested: $0 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88030

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 375

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$0
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$0 /mo · $0/yr
• Insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $967

Break-even live

Break-even rent —

Max offer price $1

Occupancy floor 16%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $967	-5% $967	+0% $967	+5% $967	+10% $967
Rent	-10% $870	-5% $919	+0% $967	+5% $1,015	+10% $1,064
Rate	-1.0pp $967	-0.5pp $967	base $967	+0.5pp $967	+1.0pp $967

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $0
• Closing costs: $0
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   This property is on an auction. Horse Property, on 29.64 acres. Unique property with 4634 sq ft. 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, included in the square footage is a guest quarters with kitchen, living room, bedroom and bath. Huge primary bedroom, with walk in closet, and access to the courtyard. 2 car detached garage. Horse stalls with an office area. Dog kennels.

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $1 Active 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   This property is on an auction. Horse Property, on 29.64 acres. Unique property with 4634 sq ft. 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, included in the square footage is a guest quarters with kitchen, living room, bedroom and bath. Huge primary bedroom, with walk in closet, and access to the courtyard. 2 car detached garage. Horse stalls with an office area. Dog kennels.

3. 2025-05-06
   price $350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$0
• − Property taxes: −$0
• − Insurance: −$0
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,175
• − Management: −$1,175
• − Depreciation: −$0
• Taxable income: $12,337
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,961
• After-tax cash flow: $8,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deming Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500690
• Math proficiency: 18% —
• Reading proficiency: 27% —
• Median HH income: $28,092
• Composite: 21.02/100
• National rank: #13708
• State rank: #63 of 95 in NM

Livability — Old Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 24,270

Population outlook (Luna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,859 people
• By 2030: 22,105 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 20,738 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 19,336 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 15,439 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 9,313 · -59.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 32% White 30% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Luna

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.4% · R 58.3% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+3.9 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.37%
• Current HPI: 114.8626
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $1 NMMLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $350,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,468 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.