Blanco Plan · Godley, TX 76044

$283,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,379 sqft · SingleFamily · 146 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Blanco plan is a spacious three-bedroom, two-bathroom home with an open-concept layout perfect for comfortable living. The kitchen features wood cabinets, a kitchen island, granite countertops and stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances. Adjacent to the kitchen, the dining room is filled with natural light from large windows, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings and memorable family dinners. The family room was designed for relaxing and mingling with family and friends. The private master suite includes a spacious bedroom, private bathroom and a large walk-in closet. The covered back patio and fully fenced backyard offer a secure area for children and pets, and a perfect setting for backyard barbecues with friends and family.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Natural light
• Kitchen island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LARGE WINDOWS

🏗️ New construction. The $283,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $292,279.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $284k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Godley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Acton El (math 52% / reading 46%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 814 students, 48% FRL); Acton Middle (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 981 students, 43% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 649 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,432 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.81%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,279
• List price: $283,900
• Delta: -2.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13429 Gitty Up Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,379 (0%)	0mo	$291,900	$212	90
13400 Stage Coach Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,379 (0%)	13mo	$307,900	$223	84
13412 Stage Coach Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-4%)	9mo	$290,900	$221	80
13420 Hang Fire Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,379 (0%)	15mo	$275,900	$200	80
13400 Gitty Up Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,379 (0%)	14mo	$285,900	$207	78
13492 Stage Coach Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+5%)	15mo	$279,890	$193	66
13596 Gunsmoke Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+4%)	10mo	$268,770	$187	59
13577 Stage Coach Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+4%)	12mo	$279,990	$194	58
13524 Gunsmoke Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+11%)	11mo	$289,240	$189	57
13472 Stage Coach Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+11%)	18mo	$289,740	$189	56
13494 Stage Coach Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+11%)	14mo	$289,490	$189	55
13556 Gunsmoke Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+14%)	20mo	$284,045	$181	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-63,719
• Equity at exit: $43,580

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-76,338
• Equity at exit: $25,271

Cash invested: $81,838 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 44.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $290,945 ($201/sqft)
• Median days on market: 54 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76044

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,314 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,533
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,384/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,641

Max offer price $254,943

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-56	-5% $-157	+0% $-258	+5% $-359	+10% $-460
Rent	-10% $-441	-5% $-349	+0% $-258	+5% $-167	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-111	-0.5pp $-184	base $-258	+0.5pp $-334	+1.0pp $-411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,070
• Closing costs: $8,768
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13429 Stage Coach Ln Cresson, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,450	$1.37	38d	1	0.10mi
13424 Stage Coach Ln Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,270	$1.72	31d	1	0.12mi
13441 Stage Coach Ln Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,395	$1.44	0d	1	0.14mi
13441 Stage Coach Ln Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,375	$1.43	38d	1	0.14mi
13429 Hang Fire Ln Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,300	$1.67	38d	1	0.14mi
13449 Stage Coach Ln Cresson, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,435	$1.36	0d	1	0.16mi
13449 Stage Coach Ln Cresson, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,395	$1.34	38d	1	0.16mi
13453 Stage Coach Ln Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,315	$1.40	38d	1	0.17mi
13457 Stage Coach Ln Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,220	$1.68	38d	1	0.18mi
13413 Gitty Up Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,250	$1.63	38d	1	0.18mi
13469 Stage Coach Ln Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,215	$1.68	0d	1	0.21mi
13469 Stage Coach Ln Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,220	$1.68	38d	1	0.21mi
13404 Gitty Up Cir Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,150	$1.30	0d	1	0.22mi
13557 Gunsmoke Ln Cresson, TX	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,000	$1.12	41d	1	0.41mi
13545 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,490	$1.36	7d	1	0.45mi
13553 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1644	$2,641	$1.61	0d	90	0.47mi
13557 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,325	$1.40	7d	1	0.48mi
13561 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	2.0	2.0	1463	$2,150	$1.47	7d	1	0.49mi
13565 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,250	$1.45	73d	1	0.50mi
13589 Gunsmoke Ln Godley, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,350	$1.42	7d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $283,900 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $283,900 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $283,900 Active 143 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $283,900 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $283,900 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $283,900 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $283,900 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $283,900 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $283,900 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $283,900 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $283,900 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $283,900 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $283,900 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $283,900 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $283,900 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $283,900 Active 125 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $283,900 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $283,900 Active 123 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $283,900 Active 122 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $283,900 Active 121 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $283,900 Active 120 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $283,900 Active 119 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $283,900 Active 118 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $283,900 Active 117 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $283,900 Active 116 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $283,900 Active 114 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    pricedays on market $283,900 Active 113 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $282,900 Active 112 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $282,900 Active 111 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $282,900 Active 110 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $282,900 Active 109 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $282,900 Active 108 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $282,900 Active 107 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $282,900 Active 106 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $282,900 Active 105 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $282,900 Active 104 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $282,900 Active 103 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $282,900 Active 101 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $282,900 Active 99 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $282,900 Active 98 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $282,900 Active 95 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $282,900 Active 94 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $282,900 Active 93 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $282,900 Active 92 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $282,900 Active 90 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $282,900 Active 86 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $282,900 Active 85 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $282,900 Active 84 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,900 Active 81 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 80 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,772
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,372
• − Property taxes: −$4,384
• − Insurance: −$2,259
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,222
• − Management: −$2,222
• − Depreciation: −$8,503
• Taxable loss: −$8,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,965
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Acton El D TX #926/4,322 Nat'l #13,933/41,679 Middle Acton Middle C TX #347/1,662 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Granbury H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Godley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,759
• Household income: $103,795
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
• Current HPI: 259.1029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Listed $289,900 Zillow