Chappell Plan · Pleasanton, TX 78064

$155,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 738 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home opens into a shared living space between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Listed 737 days

🏗️ New construction. The $155,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $185,681.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $156k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#679 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pleasanton ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #470 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pleasanton El (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,965 of 4,322 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 70% FRL); Pleasanton J H (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 772 students, 66% FRL); Pleasanton H S (math 59% / reading 51%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 944 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 108d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 738 days — a 12% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,885 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 738 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.66%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,681
• List price: $155,999
• Delta: -15.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Bronco Rdg	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	1mo	$142,999	$119	88
152 Bronco Rdg	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	3mo	$133,999	$112	82
124 Bronco Rdg	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	1mo	$158,999	$126	78
117 Bronco Rdg	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	4mo	$169,999	$134	76
105 Horseshoe Trl	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+7%)	11mo	$153,500	$120	74
156 Bronco Rdg	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	7mo	$185,999	$147	69
173 Bronco Rdg	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	7mo	$157,999	$125	68
180 Bronco Rdg	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	6mo	$179,999	$142	68
232 Cowboy Rdg	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	14mo	$171,536	$135	65
133 Bronco Rdg	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	3mo	$141,999	$103	59
185 Bronco Rdg	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	6mo	$144,999	$105	52
236 Cowboy Rdg	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	13mo	$153,799	$111	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-42,921
• Equity at exit: $27,686

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-53,841
• Equity at exit: $16,054

Cash invested: $51,991 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $178,950 ($134/sqft)
• Median days on market: 104 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78064

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$974
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$232 /mo · $2,785/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,624

Max offer price $156,479

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-73	-5% $-138	+0% $-202	+5% $-266	+10% $-330
Rent	-10% $-310	-5% $-256	+0% $-202	+5% $-148	+10% $-94
Rate	-1.0pp $-108	-0.5pp $-155	base $-202	+0.5pp $-250	+1.0pp $-299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,420
• Closing costs: $5,570
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Horseshoe Trl Pleasanton, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,450	$1.00	77d	1	0.14mi
140 Maverick Cv Pleasanton, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	110d	1	0.20mi
268 Cowboy Rdg Pleasanton, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,525	$1.27	108d	1	0.38mi
701 Oakhaven Rd Unit 502 Pleasanton, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$950	$1.09	7d	1	0.70mi
701 Oakhaven Rd Unit 505 Pleasanton, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$950	$1.09	88d	1	0.70mi
701 Oakhaven Rd Unit 501 Pleasanton, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$950	$1.09	63d	1	0.70mi
701 Oakhaven Rd Apt 504 Pleasanton, TX	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,100	$1.02	139d	1	0.70mi
701 Oakhaven Rd Unit 901 Pleasanton, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$950	$1.09	139d	1	0.70mi
821 Nancy Ln Unit A Pleasanton, TX	2.0	1.5	1049	$1,050	$1.00	58d	1	0.82mi
119 Circle Ct Unit 122 Pleasanton, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,250	$1.26	10d	1	0.83mi
1324 W Goodwin St Pleasanton, TX	2.0	1.0	960	$1,100	$1.15	139d	1	0.92mi
404 High Meadow Dr Pleasanton, TX	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,800	$1.26	113d	1	1.04mi
1209 W Goodwin St Pleasanton, TX	2.0	1.0	910	$1,000	$1.10	139d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $155,999 Active 738 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $155,999 Active 737 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $155,999 Active 736 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $155,999 Active 735 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $155,999 Active 734 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $155,999 Active 733 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $155,999 Active 732 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $155,999 Active 731 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $155,999 Active 730 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $155,999 Active 729 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $155,999 Active 728 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $155,999 Active 727 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $155,999 Active 726 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $155,999 Active 725 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $155,999 Active 719 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $155,999 Active 718 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $155,999 Active 717 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $155,999 Active 714 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $155,999 Active 713 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $155,999 Active 712 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $155,999 Active 711 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $155,999 Active 710 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $155,999 Active 708 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $155,999 Active 707 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $155,999 Active 706 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $155,999 Active 705 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $155,999 Active 704 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $155,999 Active 703 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $155,999 Active 702 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $155,999 Active 701 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $155,999 Active 700 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $155,999 Active 699 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $155,999 Active 698 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $155,999 Active 697 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $155,999 Active 696 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $155,999 Active 695 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $155,999 Active 694 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $155,999 Active 693 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $155,999 Active 692 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $155,999 Active 691 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $155,999 Active 689 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $155,999 Active 688 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $155,999 Active 687 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $155,999 Active 686 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $155,999 Active 683 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $155,999 Active 681 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $155,999 Active 680 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $154,999 Active 678 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $154,999 Active 676 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $154,999 Active 675 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,401
• − Property taxes: −$2,785
• − Insurance: −$928
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$5,402
• Taxable loss: −$5,718
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,372
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential to be further enhanced with minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior to a fresh color — A fresh coat of paint can enhance curb appeal and attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the overall aesthetic and appeal of the home. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract more renters who are interested in energy-efficient homes. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pleasanton El F TX #1,965/4,322 Nat'l #22,904/41,679 Middle Pleasanton J H F TX #971/1,662 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Pleasanton H S C TX #373/1,632 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasanton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835190
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,885
• Composite: 31.97/100
• National rank: #5843
• State rank: #470 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Pleasanton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #679
• US rank: #12731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Atascosa · 57,233 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,420
• Household income: $69,407
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 27% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.53%
• Current HPI: 188.725
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $154,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $169,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-23 Price Changed $175,999 Zillow
• 2024-11-17 Price Changed $178,999 Zillow
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $183,999 Zillow
• 2024-09-21 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-21 Price Changed $186,999 Zillow
• 2024-03-19 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-13 Listed $214,999 Zillow