2663 State Route 37 · Fort Covington, NY 12937

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 211 Days on market

Built 1995 3.35 ac lot $90/sqft · 20% below area Est $124k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming manufactured 2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on over 3 acres — plenty of room for gardening, toys, or future outbuildings. The bright, open living area flows into the kitchen and dining space, while a generous 12' × 24' living room provides comfortable seating and entertaining space. Home includes a roomy 24' × 30' attached garage for vehicles and storage.

Key facts

• 3.35 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($998 rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Salmon River Central School District (rural): math 34% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #545 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $99k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.62%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,634
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -19.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $61,524
• Equity at exit: $86,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.24×
• Total profit: $172,945
• Equity at exit: $185,103

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12937

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $896/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $804

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 193 DOM
15. 2025-11-22
    price $99,000 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Charming manufactured 2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on over 3 acres — plenty of room for gardening, toys, or future outbuildings. The bright, open living area flows into the kitchen and dining space, while a generous 12' × 24' living room provides comfortable seating and entertaining space. Home includes a roomy 24' × 30' attached garage for vehicles and storage.

16. 2025-11-18
    listed $75,000 Active 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Charming manufactured 2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on over 3 acres — plenty of room for gardening, toys, or future outbuildings. The bright, open living area flows into the kitchen and dining space, while a generous 12' × 24' living room provides comfortable seating and entertaining space. Home includes a roomy 24' × 30' attached garage for vehicles and storage.

17. 1999-05-24
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $896 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,285 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$388/yr (+$32/mo · 43.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$896
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$958
• − Management: −$958
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$57
• After-tax cash flow: $1,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salmon River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625500
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,710
• Composite: 32.24/100
• National rank: #5770
• State rank: #545 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fort Covington

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Covington, NY
• City population: 1,340
• Population (ZIP): 1,340

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Native American 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 17% Italian 6% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.69%
• Current HPI: 273.8496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+230.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $99,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $75,000 ACVMLS
• 1999-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $896 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.