4717 Frederick Ave · Baltimore, MD 21229

$179,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Townhouse public records · 294 Days on market

Built 1941 $146/sqft · 14% above area Est $158k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1941
• Listed 293 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 294 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $180k implies a 646% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 294 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.64%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,790
• List price: $179,500
• Delta: 13.76%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Hillvale Rd	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,224 (-0%)	2mo	$180,000	$147	82
40 Hillvale Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-0%)	1mo	$230,000	$188	80
44 N Athol Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,224 (-0%)	3mo	$121,600	$99	74
5141 Stafford Rd	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,140 (-7%)	0mo	$120,100	$105	69
642 Queensgate Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+2%)	0mo	$234,444	$186	68
5212 Fredcrest Rd	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-9%)	0mo	$195,000	$174	63
4413 Parkton St	0.33mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,120 (-9%)	3mo	$130,000	$116	60
4865 Melbourne Rd	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (+0%)	2mo	$214,000	$174	60
542 Lucia Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	1mo	$205,000	$153	60
708 Woodington Rd S	0.49mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,120 (-9%)	1mo	$100,000	$89	54
101 Upmanor Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,408 (+14%)	1mo	$205,000	$146	51
748 Bethnal Rd	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,408 (+14%)	2mo	$183,000	$130	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-14,969
• Equity at exit: $26,764

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $18,431
• Equity at exit: $15,520

Cash invested: $50,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21229

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,858/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,588

Max offer price $179,500

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $254	-5% $203	+0% $153	+5% $102	+10% $51
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $82	+0% $153	+5% $223	+10% $293
Rate	-1.0pp $243	-0.5pp $198	base $153	+0.5pp $106	+1.0pp $59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,875
• Closing costs: $5,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 Colleen Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	910	$1,450	$1.59	3d	11	0.13mi
19 S Tremont Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,850	$1.37	44d	1	0.14mi
2 S Tremont Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	12d	1	0.18mi
2 S Tremont Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	25d	1	0.18mi
114 S Rock Glen Rd Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1160	$2,350	$2.03	13d	1	0.28mi
4601 Pen Lucy Rd Unit 4615-G Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	798	$1,200	$1.50	22d	1	0.29mi
4601 Pen Lucy Rd Unit 103-H Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	798	$1,315	$1.65	25d	1	0.30mi
4601 Pen Lucy Rd Unit 4718-F Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	879	$1,225	$1.39	3d	1	0.30mi
4601 Pen Lucy Rd Unit 4714-B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	730	$1,205	$1.65	15d	1	0.30mi
501 Hazlett Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1044	$1,879	$1.80	2d	8	0.31mi
4431 Eldone Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	896	$2,000	$2.23	25d	1	0.35mi
500 Lucia Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,100	$1.43	17d	1	0.36mi
219 Atholgate Ln Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	814	$1,500	$1.84	4d	2	0.37mi
5147 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,950	$1.60	4d	1	0.38mi
565 Brisbane Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,675	$1.46	25d	1	0.40mi
4301 Parkton St Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	730	$1,550	$2.12	44d	1	0.46mi
586 Lucia Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1178	$2,100	$1.78	18d	1	0.49mi
2 N Woodington Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	738	$1,335	$1.81	4d	5	0.51mi
2 S Woodington Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	856	$1,160	$1.36	15d	1	0.51mi
738 Yale Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1346	$1,900	$1.41	25d	1	0.52mi
111 Upmanor Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1224	$2,163	$1.77	44d	1	0.53mi
613 S Beechfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,950	$1.81	44d	1	0.55mi
304 Collins Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1016	$2,100	$2.07	44d	1	0.55mi
627 Lucia Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	892	$1,750	$1.96	25d	1	0.55mi
751 Yale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,750	$1.71	44d	1	0.56mi
131 N Bend Rd Unit 131-1B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	910	$1,225	$1.35	22d	1	0.61mi
4018 Massachusetts Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	25d	1	0.61mi
212 S Loudon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1310	$1,550	$1.18	44d	1	0.65mi
5364 Jamestowne Ct Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–1.5	787	$1,905	$2.42	5d	13	0.72mi
4520 Scarlet Oak Ln Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,500	$1.46	44d	1	0.74mi
220 Stonecroft Rd Unit 230-D Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	900	$1,395	$1.55	22d	1	0.76mi
220 Stonecroft Rd Unit 232-I Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	900	$1,295	$1.44	18d	1	0.76mi
603 Braeside Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,400	$1.69	44d	1	1.05mi
3607 W Lexington St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,895	$1.80	5d	1	1.11mi
24 Laurence Brooke Rd Catonsville, MD	4.0	3.0	1440	$2,800	$1.94	13d	1	1.11mi
3706 W Franklin St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	735	$1,100	$1.50	5d	1	1.14mi
201 S Symington Ave Catonsville, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$1,519	$1.93	2d	13	1.16mi
3392 Saint Benedict St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	25d	1	1.16mi
3336 W Caton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,625	$1.31	25d	1	1.17mi
4020 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,875	$1.48	44d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,500 Active 294 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,500 Active 291 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,500 Active 290 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,500 Active 289 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,500 Active 288 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,500 Active 286 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,500 Active 282 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,500 Active 281 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,500 Active 280 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,500 Active 277 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,500 Active 276 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,500 Active 275 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,500 Active 274 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,500 Active 273 DOM
15. 2025-10-02
    price $179,500
16. 2025-09-01
    listed $185,000 Active
17. 2025-07-31
    historical $185,000
18. 1995-07-31
    soldstatus $24,077
19. 1995-03-09
    historical
20. 1995-02-10
    listed $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,858 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,858 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,055
• − Property taxes: −$2,858
• − Insurance: −$898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − Depreciation: −$5,222
• Taxable loss: −$1,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$260
• After-tax cash flow: $2,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 46,679
• Household income: $60,047
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2776.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.07%
• Current HPI: 226.896
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+680.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $179,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-01 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-31 Coming Soon $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-07-31 Sold (MLS) $24,077 MRIS
• 1995-03-09 Delisted — MRIS
• 1995-02-10 Listed $23,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,858 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.