3740 Lakeview Cutoff Rd · Pine Forest, TX 77662

$188,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1958 2.55 ac lot $127/sqft · 17% below area Est $226k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away like a quiet retreat beneath big Texas skies, this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on 2.55 acres of peaceful, tree-lined property that feels worlds away from the everyday hustle. Step inside to find a spacious layout featuring a generously sized primary suite designed for comfort, while recent updates throughout the home add a fresh, move-in-ready appeal. One of the true highlights is the large, air conditioned sunroom-your all season haven for morning coffee, evening unwinding, or entertaining with a view of the surrounding greenery. Outside, the property really stretches its legs. With two garages offering three car bays plus a dedicated workshop, there's room

Key facts

• 2.55 acre lot
• 5 garage spots
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 5-car garage; 2-car carport
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Well / private water available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 2.55-acre lot
• Exterior features: Storm doors; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Wood stove; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#659 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Vidor ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #422 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 241 active listings in the ZIP; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,336 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,956
• List price: $188,000
• Delta: -16.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
410 Kennedy Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+13%)	10mo	$235,000	$141	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-40,120
• Equity at exit: $28,031

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-47,237
• Equity at exit: $16,255

Cash invested: $52,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77662

• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,503 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,309/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,696

Max offer price $161,085

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,000
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 974-char remark
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $188,000 Active 974-char remark
3. 2011-10-04
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,309 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,440 · $287/mo
• Expected delta: +$131/yr (+$11/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,531
• − Property taxes: −$3,309
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable loss: −$5,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,223
• After-tax cash flow: $-605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vidor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,169
• Composite: 33.95/100
• National rank: #5331
• State rank: #422 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pine Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #659
• US rank: #12393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Forest, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,041
• Household income: $72,243
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 401.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.46%
• Current HPI: 141.0844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-04-25 Listed $188,000 BBOR
• 2011-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,309 · +21.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.